TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$764,901
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$665,563

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $764,901 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 270 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf15f…40e0backed Yes3c219,090$7,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,145.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes9c74,075$6,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,817.526516.9%11 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31c…c1c3backed Yes4c39,382$1,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,725.23520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fa3…dc66backed Yes1c26,667$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.6166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-86.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecdb…da79backed Yes1c24,432$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.94825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-64.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe410…de46backed Yes6c13,709$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.52615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked No57c11,617$6,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,996.567337%27 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc009…8bc6backed Yes0c10,900$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes61c9,880$6,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,019.3110150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes62c7,943$4,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,962.384045%18 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed No77c5,415$4,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.045749.1%28 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdba6…0218backed Yes19c5,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6761…a94fbacked Yes19c5,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1856…1964backed Yes29c4,915$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.67650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes19c4,909$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.235819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd053…f7c0backed No29c4,448$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,157.952927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8025…fce2backed No73c4,311$3,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.46966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+68.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x749b…8805backed Yes59c4,263$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.8825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-60.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1452…4c20backed No75c4,001$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-55.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd57b…f2bbbacked Yes40c3,936$1,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,58620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5405…3d7cbacked No35c3,738$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,439.031010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-71.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No56c3,403$1,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,492.645143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No35c3,392$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,220.9421531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes19c3,300$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.141752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8633…a08dbacked No78c3,200$2,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.724136.6%15 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c3f…ff4bbacked Yes3c3,168$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1960%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed No35c3,063$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9949815.3%15 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7056…b961backed Yes22c2,867$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.12520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ec…ba7bbacked No66c2,829$1,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.87862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed No49c2,812$1,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.96137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdef…3d47backed Yes4c2,662$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes22c2,600$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.62040%8 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes56c2,566$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.93922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-55.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x684b…0601backed No61c2,547$1,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.32728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-53%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28c9…5769backed Yes5c2,368$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3168…6734backed No72c2,218$1,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.233540%14 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9c0…48f6backed Yes5c2,127$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5643…5390backed Yes7c2,074$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150120%0 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x402a…d1d1backed Yes9c1,910$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.222138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec8…96a5backed No80c1,824$1,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.515644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes42c1,806$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.954156.1%23 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes22c1,783$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.9377636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0782…9477backed Yes6c1,750$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e91…b801backed No63c1,732$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.882759.3%16 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+69.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x467c…b168backed Yes9c1,700$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.4340%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes18c1,601$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.51254%1 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.24per pick28cpaid-83.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9fa8…f84abacked Yes4c1,500$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.78166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcd4…50fabacked Yes7c1,480$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No12c1,465$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.958220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes65c1,460$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.2540828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca30…7d9cbacked Yes24c1,458$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Yes21c1,401$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.9825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe104…ca89backed Yes20c1,332$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3963…5f44backed Yes4c1,300$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes18c1,298$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc785…affbbacked No79c1,263$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes25c1,257$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.4210444.2%46 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed No73c1,214$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.32862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes2c1,200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick18cpaid-49.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35f1…6600backed No38c1,193$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7419…f732backed No72c1,190$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-65.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe190…1428backed Yes4c1,163$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd28e…d68fbacked No24c1,159$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.814429.5%13 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd18d…99dbbacked No14c1,133$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.461241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc620…2da3backed Yes17c1,092$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.98650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No15c1,075$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.3451138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No44c1,051$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.9440433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x657b…6724backed Yes25c1,012$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked Yes2c1,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5302941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e9f…aa81backed No10c999.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.92326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-4.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes17c968.85$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.0228750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e5…109bbacked Yes49c957.92$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.73850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked No74c949.99$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.926011.7%7 W · 53 L-6.2wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-76.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked No71c920$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.39450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+48.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18b0…2354backed No57c882.74$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.15736.8%21 W · 36 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes17c876.73$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.044223.8%10 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d53…b53abacked Yes3c800$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57cb…cc59backed Yes26c775.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a31…c1cebacked Yes26c774.79$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0110…0929backed Yes33c762.57$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x660f…ec30backed No65c750$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.81747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+51.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No78c700$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.495836.2%21 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+73%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked No54c690.58$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.928037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe84c…7938backed No73c690$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f17…fecbbacked No75c667.73$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.73540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb231…99a4backed Yes20c663.25$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.65742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-41.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc8…00b3backed No13c660.6$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.711735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+117.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x382c…a0d7backed No12c660$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.33625%9 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2873…4ad3backed No76c650$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.821450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes22c640.85$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4286542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No73c611.87$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.663762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Yes44c594.64$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.922748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+33.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa842…e305backed Yes38c593.27$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.2611329.2%33 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-37.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1dc…7283backed No52c573.38$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.571717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0b0…b781backed Yes50c564.92$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d5c…b379backed No11c563.55$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+369.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b4e…cd9ebacked Yes22c563.19$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.6933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5e2…25f7backed No51c547$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.72740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-32%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No57c541.71$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.989234.8%32 W · 60 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.