TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2032…d577

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
689
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 59 out of 100; worst Chess at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 200 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Avatar 4 greenlit by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$14
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 480m and 520m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$12.46
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$2,036Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$2,035.85
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$359.92
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,769Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$2,769.29
Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 18.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$76.08
Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 16m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$179.36
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$5,089Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+43%+$2,188.12
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$227.66
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$717Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$717.5
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$2,431Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+64.3%+$1,563.05
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,274Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+80.4%+$1,024.57
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+30.8%+$61.62
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$2,779Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$2,778.57
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$46.21
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,312Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,312.06
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+46.8%+$74.58
Will Murray die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+31.6%+$119.99
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be between 57m and 62m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$634Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$634.09
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be between 62m and 67m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$543Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+141.7%+$770.18
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be greater than 67m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$231.66
Will "Anaconda" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 23m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+117.4%+$14.57
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$2,915Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+222%+$6,471.91
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$3,083Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$3,083.4
Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 18m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+42.6%+$127.31
Showing 25 of 200 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST15155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 151 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$837Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+44.9%+$376.26
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$731Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+29.9%+$218.5
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,124Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+133.7%+$1,502.34
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,891Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+55.4%+$1,047.66
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$387Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$387.49
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$975Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$974.5
Will 300 or more house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+42.1%+$81.69
Will Mike Johnson vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20.8
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+205.3%+$820.03
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$2,000.11
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$81.63
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,650Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,650
Kash Patel out by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+25.7%+$30.7
Will Ghislaine Maxwell cut a deal with the Feds by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$382Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+37%+$141.19
Trump imposes tariff on pharmaceuticals by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$266.78
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$460Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+47.4%+$218.14
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+38.5%+$36.01
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$759Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$758.72
Will Trump say "ICE" during the DC Crime Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.45
Will Trump say "DOGE" during the DC Crime Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.68
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$70.86
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$9,687Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+63.5%+$6,148.3
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$879Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+27%+$237.22
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+110.1%+$406.86
Will Elon register the America Party in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,459Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+37.1%+$541.5
Showing 25 of 151 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST9750.5%49 W · 48 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 97 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,205Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+71.8%+$865.81
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$258.85
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,311Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+62.6%+$820.89
Will André Ventura win between 22% and 24% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+218.9%+$260.39
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$86.93
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+104.4%+$184.79
Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+154.8%+$285.87
Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$420.47
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$458Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+85.6%+$391.99
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,515Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+69.2%+$1,048.21
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$215
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,725Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+44.9%+$775
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,330Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+42.5%+$990.97
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,050Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+42.9%+$449.99
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$601Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$601.29
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$933Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+71.5%+$667.18
Will turnout be between 75% and 78% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$221.25
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+47.7%+$42.17
Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+47.1%+$32
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,557Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+140.3%+$2,183.45
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$595Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+68.1%+$405
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,096Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+41.8%+$458.36
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$902Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$902.05
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$2,171Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+134.7%+$2,923.95
Showing 25 of 97 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Sep 16, 2025, EDT6448.4%31 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 64 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chargers vs. Raidersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$270
Will the Vikings resign Sam Darnold?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.79
Lions vs. 49ersbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST+47.1%+$122.21
Jaguars vs. Raidersbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Eagles vs. Commandersbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST+212.5%+$212.5
Giants vs. Falconsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Commanders vs. Saintsbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+28.2%+$33.85
Will the Panthers and Cowboys combine for 43 or more points?backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+92.3%+$120
Will the Bengals and Cowboys combine for 50 or more points?backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2024, EST-100%-$200
Chargers vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$983Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2024, EST+47.2%+$463.93
Will the Chiefs and Chargers combine for 44 or more points?backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2024, EST-100%-$540
Bills vs. Ramsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$480
Bears vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$530Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+41.5%+$220
Will the Steelers and Browns combine for 44 or more points?backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$600
Will the Buccaneers and Raiders combine for 47 or more points?backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$588Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$588
Will the Lions beat the Packers by 4 or more points?backed Lion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2024, EST-100%-$295.1
Eagles vs. Ramsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$179.05
Will the Steelers beat the Browns by 4 or more points?backed Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$145
Will the Bills beat the Colts by 4 or more points?backed Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+82%+$143.55
Will the Falcons beat the Saints by 4 or more points?backed Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$335Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$335
Will the Chiefs and Broncos combine for 42 or more points?backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+90.6%+$158.52
Will the Packers and Lions combine for 48 or more points?backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2024, EST-100%-$168
Will the Bills and Seahawks combine for 47 or more points?backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$275
Will the Texans and Colts combine for 46 or more points?backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$275
Packers vs. Jaguarsbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2024, EDT+48%+$84.03
Showing 25 of 64 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST4957.1%28 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+32.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 12-15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+687.4%+$1,440.45
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 3-6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$59.5
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 9-12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$486Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$485.94
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 6-9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$504Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$504
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 15%+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$248Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+25.1%+$62.13
Will Mikie Sherrill win by less than 3%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$4,026Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+35.5%+$1,429.39
Larger Margin of Victory: Virginia or New Jersey Governor?backed New Jersey · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$110.35
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 60% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+88.7%+$345.45
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$55.26
Zohran Mamdani Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$832Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$831.78
Will Zohran Mamdani win The Bronx in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$522Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+31%+$162
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$157.71
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 9-12%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+25%+$150
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$954Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+80.1%+$764.56
Will at least 95 senators vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+85.8%+$167.4
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$386Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+109.9%+$424.48
Will Bruce Harrell win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+139.7%+$333.31
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$563Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$562.5
Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$274Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+177.8%+$487.68
Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$833Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+170.3%+$1,417.5
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Dream" 3+ times during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$65.67
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 8+ times during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$89.16
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$337.75
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$10.5
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,012Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+97.8%+$1,967.32
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST3762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$813Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$812.5
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$2,010Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$2,009.98
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,377Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+27%+$372.5
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$12,908Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+55.5%+$7,163.59
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$3,476Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+44.1%+$1,531.59
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$619Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+74%+$458.27
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,012Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+57%+$1,146.01
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$11,528Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+72.1%+$8,307.62
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+66.7%+$30.85
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,723Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,723.16
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,953Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,952.73
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,680Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,680
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$667Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$667.49
Israel strike on Yemen by September 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+78.4%+$144.38
Israel x Syria security deal before September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT+132%+$230.84
Israel strikes Yemen by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$105
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,535Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,534.64
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$10,128Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+60.4%+$6,114.43
Another Israel strike on Damascus by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$362Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+244.8%+$887.5
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+46.3%+$106.42
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$2,580Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,579.87
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$899.99
Another Houthi strike on Israel before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$687Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$562.5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$563Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$289.78
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$888Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$617.25
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2060%12 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$4,890Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$4,890.12
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$196.29
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$477Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+54.6%+$260.13
Will Trump say "Suit" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+27.2%+$77.12
Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$149.2
Will Trump say "Percent" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+104.6%+$89.45
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+37%+$77.98
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$86.12
Will Trump say "Suit" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+29.8%+$83.39
Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+73.8%+$110.82
Will Trump say "Crimea" or "Donetsk" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$354Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+92.8%+$328.73
Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Mineral" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+79.2%+$211.31
Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.22
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,458Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,458.3
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,519Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,518.53
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$686Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+33.9%+$232.54
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,855Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+103.8%+$2,962.05
US lifts Russia sanctions before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$535Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+28.1%+$150.6
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$944Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+37.2%+$351.11
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,186Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$1,185.76
All 20 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1675%12 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+16.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+81.8%+$94.2
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$639Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+29.9%+$191.32
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+32.6%+$31.51
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$389Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+62%+$241.21
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$960Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$960
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,049Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+71.6%+$751
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,644Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+82.5%+$1,356.23
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$656Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+127.4%+$835.8
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$388Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+30.2%+$117.15
Will anyone say "iPhone" 100+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$675Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+46.5%+$313.98
OpenAI browser by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,192Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+44.8%+$534.41
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$2,228Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,228.31
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$394Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$394.12
Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$109.13
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,172Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$577.5
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$14,024Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+25.9%+$3,638.45
All 16 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 26, 2025, EST1275%9 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Last Christmas - Wham! be the #1 song on Spotify this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$2,236Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+59.9%+$1,339.35
Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$677Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+74.2%+$502.1
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$5,695Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$5,695.33
Will Drake be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$641Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$641.21
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,510Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+31.1%+$469.65
Taylor Swift holds top ten spots on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 18th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,510Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+28.3%+$427.72
Will 'Honey' be the least streamed song on The Life of a Showgirl on Oct 10th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,104Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT+36.6%+$404.52
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$785Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$785.49
Sabrina Carpenter holds 3 top 10 spots on Billboard Hot 100 for week of September 13th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT+33.1%+$95.07
Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get between 5-10m views on day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$589Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT+28.5%+$168.01
Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get between 10-15m views on day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$569Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT+87.5%+$497.39
Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get more than 15m views on day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$3,178Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT+48%+$1,526.96
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,041Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+50.8%+$529.04
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11,411Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$11,410.77
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,010Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$2,009.71
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$545Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+36.6%+$199.54
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,233Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+198.5%+$2,447.68
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,121Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$297.93
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$130
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$483Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$482.51
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+59.2%+$139.4
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,675Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$825
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$210
All 11 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.32per pick57cpaid+68.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be eleven or more announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,156Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+30.1%+$648.92
Will there be seven or eight announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+316.7%+$95.3
Will there be five or six announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$31.17
Maduro mugshot released by January 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+30.1%+$45.84
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$988Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+47.1%+$465.42
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,033Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+113%+$1,168.05
Maduro out by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+56.3%+$36
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$496Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+79.6%+$394.46
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$644Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.7%+$274.9
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2025, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$581Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$580.68
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 81-82°F on May 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$6.23
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 83°F or higher on May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT+48%+$40.93
Will all LA wildfires be fully contained before February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,631Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,631.22
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,705Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$1,704.74
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$12,620Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST+35.5%+$4,483.18
Will the Palisades fire be 50% contained by January 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$35.31
Will LA wildfires burn 40-50k acres by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2025, EST+56.9%+$24.02
All 8 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 6, 2025, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+44.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+70.3%+$136.27
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by August 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$165.33
All 2 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 12, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$323Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$323.1
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$223.44
All 2 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Chess — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.04
World Chess Championship 2024 Winnerbacked Ding · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$4,210Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST-100%-$4,210.29
All 2 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.