TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,981,712
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,575,408

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,981,712 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7f69…9c7abacked Yes2c75,000$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes7c67,613$4,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,856.025841.4%24 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes9c63,918$5,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,880.941118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39fe…4feabacked Yes1c57,667$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes13c52,133$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,600.31728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes4c44,401$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,841.472236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+20.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x98e3…c80fbacked Yes4c43,060$1,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,511.9780%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc970…b063backed Yes1c40,000$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-70.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes3c38,757$1,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,353.73130%0 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c37,715$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.48551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c33,011$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.14611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes12c32,928$3,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,845.775328.3%15 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d77…b2a3backed Yes2c31,852$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes3c31,470$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.345738.6%22 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8d8…c7c8backed Yes2c27,941$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb132…9eb8backed Yes2c26,189$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.5340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfe6…a0cabacked Yes2c24,818$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb014…b3fabacked Yes1c23,755$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.5370%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee17…6ea1backed Yes3c21,032$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.711361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick35cpaid+90.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes8c21,000$1,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,591.543043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes2c20,640$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.571154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick37cpaid-7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fd4…4095backed Yes2c19,668$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.9970%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes2c19,455$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.29263.8%1 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.19per pick22cpaid-65%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x1caf…5c34backed Yes1c19,115$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes0c18,591$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.631747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-32.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab8…5880backed Yes1c17,147$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes16c16,258$2,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,572.746132.8%20 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked Yes2c16,000$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.62330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes3c15,127$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.5621161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes10c15,000$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.72128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18c0…1ce7backed Yes1c15,000$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes16c14,728$2,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,415.442729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x654b…c791backed Yes2c12,726$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11a4…ed49backed Yes1c12,299$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb36…09f3backed Yes2c12,247$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.6340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes7c11,807$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.521729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes2c10,101$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.5310740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x189c…fea3backed Yes1c10,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb6d…ab88backed Yes2c10,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafa5…58c6backed Yes1c9,592$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a69…a466backed Yes1c8,906$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes6c8,839$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.125545.5%25 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes15c8,091$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230.135145.1%23 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+103%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked Yes19c8,000$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.993046.7%14 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-4.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a03…68d1backed Yes1c7,935$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98af…3a0dbacked Yes1c7,774$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x369f…2422backed Yes3c7,703$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.091136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc42e…56b9backed Yes2c7,673$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120160%0 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b79…b838backed Yes1c7,500$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes4c7,023$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.332927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa6…b8f1backed Yes2c7,002$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ef…b1babacked Yes5c6,746$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-46.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes16c6,501$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.615836.2%21 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3327…11debacked Yes3c6,190$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.21118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes3c6,155$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.272638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes1c6,112$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick16cpaid+29%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes18c5,982$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.254139%16 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes2c5,555$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.661010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-78.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes4c5,309$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.0770%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefc3…081fbacked Yes1c5,100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes1c5,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703030%9 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes15c5,000$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.951662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82cf…0998backed Yes1c5,000$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ce5…7c13backed Yes24c5,000$1,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.27933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes2c4,675$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.931428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes12c4,597$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.81513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-82.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c4,514$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.19585.2%3 W · 55 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes14c4,416$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.163145.2%14 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c4,389$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2449511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb70e…1eeabacked Yes2c4,330$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes20c4,318$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.65044%22 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6238…57c8backed Yes2c4,029$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623129%9 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-54.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes15c3,750$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.54957.1%28 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+32.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe274…ee86backed Yes4c3,745$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1652222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes5c3,719$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.792725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c3,640$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed Yes19c3,477$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.43616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed Yes1c3,284$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.74825%12 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes13c3,100$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.633630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x949a…721cbacked Yes1c3,078$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.791216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick7cpaid+149.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes3c2,969$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes11c2,650$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.56035%21 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes2c2,412$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.873915.4%6 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef5e…6512backed Yes5c2,220$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ec…1b42backed Yes3c2,115$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2105…c514backed Yes5c2,115$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf35d…6dbabacked Yes5c2,046$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9849…36f0backed Yes2c2,019$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf562…4099backed Yes1c2,007$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc667…a381backed Yes1c2,002$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcba6…5adabacked Yes1c2,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc2…3834backed Yes11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes1c2,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193928.2%11 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes5c1,989$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003145.2%14 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c65…b9eebacked Yes1c1,950$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ae…440ebacked Yes33c1,897$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.27742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ed6…6a8dbacked Yes3c1,867$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick23cpaid-76.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c1,859$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1434129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c08…171bbacked Yes19c1,836$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa5b…1615backed Yes1c1,735$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.