TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x71e5…d10b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
152
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: AI, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category AI at 59 out of 100; worst Macro Indicators at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST3928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$5,536Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+64.9%+$3,595.48
US forces in Yemen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$187.44
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$700
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+81.8%+$63
Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$66.2
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,220Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,219.51
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$4,830Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,829.99
Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$344Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$343.66
US government shutdown in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$314.01
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$4,106Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,105.68
Will Trump send the national guard to Chicago?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$279.82
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+203%+$201
Will Eric Adams drop out by October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,600
Will Eric Adams drop out?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$2,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,499.98
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$4,643Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,642.54
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$980Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$980.04
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,163Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+488.2%+$5,678.69
Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,010Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,010
Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by July 18th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$544Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$543.55
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$779Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$778.55
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$176
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,921Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+137.9%+$2,648.65
Will anyone be charged as a result of Epstein file release?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$4,482Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+28.1%+$1,261.17
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,124Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+790.9%+$8,890.21
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$54
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$74.43
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$933Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+35.9%+$334.54
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$14,741Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+163.3%+$24,077.44
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$3,665Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+228.5%+$8,373.3
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,082Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,082
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$2,121Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+607.1%+$12,878.58
Will Han Duck-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15,614Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$15,613.96
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$2,280Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,280
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$3,217Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$907.24
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$308.21
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$349.99
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,628Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+177%+$2,881.77
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$21,290Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+109.2%+$23,241.7
Will George Simion win by 6–12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$2,392Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,392.18
Will George Simion win by over 18%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,200
Will George Simion win by 12–18%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.39
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$4,766Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,766.35
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$29,243Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$29,243.43
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$37,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$37,800.02
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor minority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$538Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$538
Will Han Duck-soo register for presidential run?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$437Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT+529.5%+$2,312.71
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$3,659Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,658.62
Will Nicușor Dan win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$208.53
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$37,492Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+68.2%+$25,553.94
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$6,392Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+207.2%+$13,243.63
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+42.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+169.4%+$382.66
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$530Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+88.7%+$470
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,260
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$4,797Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+52.6%+$2,521.87
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$2,739Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+64.2%+$1,759.26
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$31.17
OpenAI browser in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+54.9%+$177.27
OpenAI social app in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$2,242Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,241.89
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$636Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$272.74
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,540Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$460
Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT+455.6%+$510.93
OpenAI browser in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$604Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$603.77
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,781Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$958.84
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,287Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT+77.3%+$995.17
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$11,053Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+47.5%+$5,247.09
Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,064Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+86.9%+$924.53
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,130Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$869.99
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,087Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,086.83
All 18 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST1533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$155.21
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+37.6%+$86.21
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 3 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,596Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$1,596.17
Will "Anora" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$956Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+82.7%+$790.41
Will "Conclave" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,796Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$1,796.14
Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$3,542Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+226.1%+$8,009.3
Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,678Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+189.6%+$3,182.04
Will "The Substance" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$3,733Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$3,733.42
Will "Anora" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$2,625Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$2,625.39
Will 'The Monkey' gross between 9-12m on its opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$286.23
Will 'The Monkey' gross more than 15m on its opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$4,436Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$4,436
Will 'The Monkey' gross between 12-15m on its opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$173.83
Will Colman Domingo win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "Sing Sing"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$96.87
Will "Conclave" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST+640.7%+$828.95
Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$21
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Netanyahu out by 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,514Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,514.35
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,659Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+94.7%+$2,518.37
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$4,547Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,547.35
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15,461Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15,461.06
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,075Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+33.2%+$1,021.59
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$957Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$957.16
US strike on Iran on June  27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+34.3%+$21.44
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$8,989Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$8,989.14
Israel strikes Iranian oil in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$463Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$462.74
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$3,982Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+75.8%+$3,017.99
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$5,467Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+76.1%+$4,160.99
All 11 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-63.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-39.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+130.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$710Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$710
Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$422.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$150.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$5,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,799.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$3,960Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$3,960
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,326Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$1,325.75
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.