TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Anora" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$258,154
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$258,662

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,154 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1b78…683bbacked No55c96,000$52,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,80030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x206c…2632backed Yes45c96,000$43,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,800333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid-25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes58c3,648$2,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5142857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed No38c3,072$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.43831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x063d…3567backed Yes53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes51c2,606$1,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.1918431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c3b…3ad8backed No48c2,231$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.3650%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes55c1,746$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.411533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes50c1,687$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.098334.9%29 W · 54 L+8.7wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb833…3ff7backed Yes57c1,630$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No33c1,551$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.671799.5%17 W · 162 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes53c1,525$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.028330.1%25 W · 58 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No59c1,280$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.3634651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed No51c1,138$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.646937.7%26 W · 43 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No56c1,124$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.8223751.9%123 W · 114 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes52c1,077$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.132639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed No51c1,066$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.893240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes48c1,061$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.45040%20 W · 30 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+0.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6fa9…aab1backed Yes50c992.26$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.26966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+67.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes74c898.44$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.881741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed No30c789.48$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.56744.1%3 W · 71 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-84.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x98f2…73d8backed Yes59c734$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.942100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+109.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ccb…0a10backed Yes55c676.83$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes56c550$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.3519031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7245…f1c3backed Yes58c521.38$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.384100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+111.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e8d…3eeabacked Yes59c512.2$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09a5…b5c3backed Yes56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2203100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+121.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6f9…a1debacked No41c490$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9e6…7f09backed No41c477$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x883e…31dfbacked Yes53c474.5$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5327…3b80backed Yes65c465.07$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d7…9404backed Yes66c457.13$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26ae…97b8backed No42c456.84$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.142751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed No41c423.81$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.9110232.4%33 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904d…8fd8backed Yes60c416.39$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.392944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc654…f0debacked Yes51c405.79$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.191968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.5wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+54.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x99ec…f99ebacked No46c389.13$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180244.2%1 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-84.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2b9…9cddbacked No16c377.13$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x500b…0e81backed No51c340$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc953…9e7ebacked Yes49c340$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+94.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes48c334$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.9218444%81 W · 103 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Yes55c329.34$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.625244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes45c327$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.539231.5%29 W · 63 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x71bb…40d8backed No41c313$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e92…37d2backed Yes59c308.46$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…94bcbacked No40c299.98$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb51…3ed9backed Yes59c286$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x793f…4ee5backed Yes68c265.06$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.792560%15 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcea…e78bbacked Yes51c262.49$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.491546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4264…7256backed Yes59c260$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe49…0eccbacked Yes49c260$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+115.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecce…1a83backed No51c260$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed No7c255.3$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.074734%16 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc86…3993backed Yes49c250$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+240.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9664…bc63backed No51c250$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cf…3349backed Yes53c250$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.51643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed No12c245.69$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.47135.2%25 W · 46 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+28.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes55c235.84$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No50c229.21$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.387033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x09ae…d026backed No42c217$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes74c216.25$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.142171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6867…25b8backed Yes52c214.7$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.061631.3%5 W · 11 L-4.3wins-0.27per pick58cpaid-51.1%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x2b6d…5d26backed Yes54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+71.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a79…5adebacked Yes51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed Yes72c195.88$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.993571.4%25 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x713f…22ccbacked Yes55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.821546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd42…99a4backed Yes62c173.48$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes33c170.78$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.78850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked No48c165.26$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.72231.8%7 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-48%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6a86…ecfbbacked No50c160$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5236…6b6bbacked Yes50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick60cpaid+72.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50d9…7c7abacked No51c160$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa102…e6e6backed Yes49c160$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+115.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7517751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f2c…6134backed Yes53c150$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ace…c277backed Yes52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0257…7708backed No47c150$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34c2…f4f5backed No48c150$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-23.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x171e…2a02backed No43c145.51$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x482b…83bbbacked No43c139.53$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes62c139.02$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.82683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.46per pick38cpaid+135.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Yes56c133.93$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.93475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92f5…6d29backed No55c131$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed No60c127.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.373917.9%7 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-54.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x007b…660ebacked Yes48c124.81$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick29cpaid+62.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No55c124.31$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.873372.7%24 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No55c120.92$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6548236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2378…35a4backed Yes51c117.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.65666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x022d…521cbacked No48c116.98$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No55c114.71$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7147328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb09e…09b0backed Yes52c106.75$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1ba2…99cebacked Yes58c103.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1ae…3327backed Yes57c101$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.43966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x394e…c26abacked Yes80c100.57$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.57944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473023.3%7 W · 23 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-39.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6628…84b1backed No44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9259…f240backed No51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0944…aab4backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c54…cc1ebacked Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+80.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a8b…9486backed Yes56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.