TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x063d…3567

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
43
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 56 out of 100; worst World Politics at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+56.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will anyone be charged as a result of Epstein file release?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$9,467Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+46.9%+$4,443.88
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,318Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$3,563.66
US military action against Iran by Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$37,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$37,500
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$4,986Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+213%+$10,619
Trump releases Epstein list today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,959Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$1,958.57
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,699Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+305.7%+$5,193.68
Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$3,231Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+44.7%+$1,445.87
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$8,040Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+107.2%+$8,615.38
Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$353.43
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$676Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$675.88
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$9,867Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+33.3%+$3,287.63
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2025, EST1040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$7,787Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$7,787.07
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+33.3%+$89
Will 51 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$206.67
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,816Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$1,816.25
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,635Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$1,634.54
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20,868Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$20,868.26
Will John Cornyn be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,081Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$1,080.83
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$6,397Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+165.2%+$10,570.66
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$5,291Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+167.6%+$8,869.18
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15%backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$2,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2024, EST+217.6%+$5,439.75
All 10 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-55.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will George Simion win by 6–12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$2,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,600
Will George Simion win by over 18%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$3,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,500
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$19,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$19,799.93
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$35,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$35,299.99
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,360Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+213.1%+$2,897.3
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$45,725Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+31.2%+$14,274.97
Will 5-6 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,440Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,440
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$71,012Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$71,011.71
Will the AfD win less than 20% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,015Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,014.8
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19,270Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$19,269.73
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2025, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Anora" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,590Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+88.7%+$1,410
Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$2,267Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+259.9%+$5,889.64
Will Brady Corbet win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "The Brutalist"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$475Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$474.79
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Cinematography at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+37%+$136.93
Will "Wicked" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$12.97
Will "Conclave" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,230Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$1,229.6
Will "The Substance" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,135Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$1,134.94
Will Colman Domingo win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "Sing Sing"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$122.65
Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$366.65
All 9 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pereira vs. Ankalaevbacked Ankalaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,072Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$1,208.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Usyk beat Fury?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,760Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+42%+$740
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$7,350Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$7,350.25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.