TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$829,319
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,204,892

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $829,319 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x21f9…ed12backed No0c45,318$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.952114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-67.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes35c20,442$7,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,383.21471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+35.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x063d…3567backed Yes38c16,968$6,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,570.661040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes34c12,333$4,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,127.914141.5%17 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No5c11,128$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.6834129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b54…0a6abacked No67c10,176$6,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,818.4520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No1c9,500$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74442.3%1 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid+96.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes46c9,206$4,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,004.252055%11 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+63.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No1c7,494$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.961320.8%1 W · 131 L+0.5wins0.00per pick0cpaid+60.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4f8…8a4abacked No39c7,425$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,900.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a65…acf4backed Yes27c6,765$1,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,929.641442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes46c6,252$2,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,397.221662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x241f…3143backed Yes45c5,705$2,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,115.521346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes44c5,445$2,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,041.752138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0ca…e680backed Yes76c5,237$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-56.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4124…5827backed Yes60c3,333$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.21533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb702…e291backed No25c3,289$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8081735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed No1c3,203$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.91020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-72.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes63c3,162$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.84850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes55c3,128$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,417.161637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes62c3,031$1,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.785824.1%14 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed Yes55c2,877$1,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,292.321338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-43.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e6a…2720backed No61c2,699$1,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,648.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…edf7backed No1c2,640$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda08…72d4backed Yes40c2,551$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.052850%14 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+41.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes65c2,364$1,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.414936.7%18 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99d6…61f4backed Yes64c2,342$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa04e…5ce8backed Yes58c2,187$1,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe25e…0aa5backed Yes67c2,072$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.18757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc1c…db49backed No50c2,026$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30b2…b708backed Yes50c2,024$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8ca…7229backed No61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-61.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69a4…bba9backed No55c1,778$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.241233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-51.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54bf…eb1abacked Yes61c1,749$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.9333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x544c…430cbacked No64c1,725$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.5550%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No35c1,659$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.951612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-83.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes65c1,597$1,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.954425%11 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01ea…a907backed Yes24c1,560$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+311.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2286…c31fbacked No65c1,538$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e5…c4fcbacked Yes63c1,511$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed No66c1,504$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+98.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12b0…fe32backed No51c1,500$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77a9…b20ebacked Yes49c1,500$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No53c1,456$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.921414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-79.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb190…d31cbacked Yes47c1,419$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c8…73cebacked Yes60c1,400$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5601968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+14.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No2c1,382$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.89270%0 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4da6…b8e5backed Yes62c1,329$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes68c1,326$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.191520%3 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d9c…e78fbacked Yes45c1,323$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.54333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad90…23d8backed Yes58c1,318$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.19540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4219…9711backed Yes57c1,301$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.812100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No36c1,299$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.522817.9%5 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid+59.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes61c1,255$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.846154.1%33 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb11…e824backed Yes31c1,250$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.04333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f76…a6c3backed No51c1,245$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e63…4268backed No58c1,237$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3832…35e1backed Yes55c1,135$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.261136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b67…919fbacked Yes51c1,077$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.03560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No60c1,050$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6271625%4 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-61.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes38c1,043$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.584957.1%28 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+32.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes63c1,025$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.851936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed Yes49c1,014$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.071361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68d8…8c3fbacked Yes52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e41…6b46backed Yes60c955.77$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d02…adadbacked Yes35c870.72$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+182.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed No3c868.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.17922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf368…873abacked No54c864.84$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.7960%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72a0…104bbacked Yes45c864.26$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+121.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes44c791$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.082714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-72.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd91d…cd05backed Yes65c789.91$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e4…b676backed Yes61c738$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.542138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes46c714.92$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.1545035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x23b3…080bbacked Yes41c701.38$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+141.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f09…02b6backed Yes55c679.92$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fec…2b67backed Yes20c674.98$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.98633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x341c…8eaebacked Yes57c666.04$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.641030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-50.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes50c664.76$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.086132.8%20 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes43c650$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.52623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid+16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes44c611.16$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.444214.3%6 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-62.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked Yes22c600$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4682040%8 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd6…f461backed Yes43c594.04$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc062…1239backed Yes41c578.51$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cc3…23b3backed No63c577.69$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.8520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc98a…2a0cbacked No55c550$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa380…175abacked Yes53c549.99$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.49450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf214…a9e5backed Yes55c529.64$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.34520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-63.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes23c518.46$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.072100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+325.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No63c500$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3141136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4451…c6afbacked No33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe998…fe7dbacked No2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb777…3ef1backed Yes47c500$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04f7…346fbacked Yes61c500$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes45c486.74$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.745836.2%21 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f41…03e7backed Yes45c438.49$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.712100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked No46c438.41$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x847d…13d0backed No44c436.44$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.041010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-86.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3899…452ebacked No43c405.28$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1687…cfdcbacked Yes43c399.99$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.992100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe367…f235backed Yes45c390$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.31936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+89.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.