Us Midterms · resolved market
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9245f04f26a1cbe765e5b80868f113c0da34319895075f6de57db3cde097609
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $829,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,204,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $829,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 0c | 45,318$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 35c | 20,442$7,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,383.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…3567backed Yes | 38c | 16,968$6,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,570.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 34c | 12,333$4,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,127.91 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 11,128$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.68 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b54…0a6abacked No | 67c | 10,176$6,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,818.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 9,500$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 46c | 9,206$4,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,004.25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 1c | 7,494$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…8a4abacked No | 39c | 7,425$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed Yes | 27c | 6,765$1,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,929.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 46c | 6,252$2,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,397.22 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed Yes | 45c | 5,705$2,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,115.52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 44c | 5,445$2,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,041.75 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ca…e680backed Yes | 76c | 5,237$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 60c | 3,333$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed No | 25c | 3,289$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed No | 1c | 3,203$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 63c | 3,162$1,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 55c | 3,128$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,417.16 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 62c | 3,031$1,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.78 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed Yes | 55c | 2,877$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…2720backed No | 61c | 2,699$1,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,648.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…edf7backed No | 1c | 2,640$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 40c | 2,551$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.05 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 65c | 2,364$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.41 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d6…61f4backed Yes | 64c | 2,342$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04e…5ce8backed Yes | 58c | 2,187$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…0aa5backed Yes | 67c | 2,072$1,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1c…db49backed No | 50c | 2,026$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…b708backed Yes | 50c | 2,024$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…7229backed No | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 55c | 1,778$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54bf…eb1abacked Yes | 61c | 1,749$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x544c…430cbacked No | 64c | 1,725$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 35c | 1,659$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.95 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 65c | 1,597$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.95 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ea…a907backed Yes | 24c | 1,560$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +311.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2286…c31fbacked No | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e5…c4fcbacked Yes | 63c | 1,511$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed No | 66c | 1,504$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…fe32backed No | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a9…b20ebacked Yes | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 53c | 1,456$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.92 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb190…d31cbacked Yes | 47c | 1,419$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c8…73cebacked Yes | 60c | 1,400$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 2c | 1,382$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…b8e5backed Yes | 62c | 1,329$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 68c | 1,326$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.19 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9c…e78fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,323$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…23d8backed Yes | 58c | 1,318$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4219…9711backed Yes | 57c | 1,301$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 36c | 1,299$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.52 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 61c | 1,255$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.84 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb11…e824backed Yes | 31c | 1,250$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f76…a6c3backed No | 51c | 1,245$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e63…4268backed No | 58c | 1,237$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 55c | 1,135$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…919fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,077$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 60c | 1,050$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 38c | 1,043$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.58 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 63c | 1,025$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.85 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed Yes | 49c | 1,014$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.07 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…8c3fbacked Yes | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e41…6b46backed Yes | 60c | 955.77$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d02…adadbacked Yes | 35c | 870.72$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +182.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 3c | 868.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…873abacked No | 54c | 864.84$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.79 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…104bbacked Yes | 45c | 864.26$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 44c | 791$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.08 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…cd05backed Yes | 65c | 789.91$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 61c | 738$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.54 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 714.92$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.15 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23b3…080bbacked Yes | 41c | 701.38$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f09…02b6backed Yes | 55c | 679.92$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…2b67backed Yes | 20c | 674.98$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341c…8eaebacked Yes | 57c | 666.04$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 50c | 664.76$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.08 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 43c | 650$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.5 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 44c | 611.16$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.44 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 22c | 600$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd6…f461backed Yes | 43c | 594.04$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc062…1239backed Yes | 41c | 578.51$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc3…23b3backed No | 63c | 577.69$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…2a0cbacked No | 55c | 550$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa380…175abacked Yes | 53c | 549.99$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf214…a9e5backed Yes | 55c | 529.64$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 518.46$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +325.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 63c | 500$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…c6afbacked No | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe998…fe7dbacked No | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ef1backed Yes | 47c | 500$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f7…346fbacked Yes | 61c | 500$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 45c | 486.74$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.74 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…03e7backed Yes | 45c | 438.49$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked No | 46c | 438.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847d…13d0backed No | 44c | 436.44$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.04 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3899…452ebacked No | 43c | 405.28$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1687…cfdcbacked Yes | 43c | 399.99$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed Yes | 45c | 390$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.3 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?this page
- Will JD Vance be the next Senate Majority Leader?No won
- Will John Barrasso be the next Senate Majority Leader?No won
- Will John Cornyn be the next Senate Majority Leader?No won
- Will Joni Ernst be the next Senate Majority Leader?No won
- Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader?No won
- Will Steve Daines be the next Senate Majority Leader?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.