TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xcbba…dbff

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
181
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 56 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT3718.9%7 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$27,683Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$27,683.2
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$54,601Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+187.2%+$102,200.37
Will France vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20,033Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20,033.27
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$49,493Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+150%+$74,240.06
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$22,777Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$22,777.45
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$36,557Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$36,557.44
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10,125Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+294.7%+$29,836.65
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$61,046Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$61,046.31
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15,499.83
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$8,231Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,230.63
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$58,466Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$58,466.03
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$23,329Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$23,328.67
France vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$41,999.89
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$68,601Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$68,600.94
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.29
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25,479Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$25,479.47
Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$18,999.98
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$7,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,000
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$41,999.93
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$8,810Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,810.23
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$4,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,600
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+422.9%+$1,294
Will France win on 2026-07-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$15,999Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15,999.29
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advancebacked Cabo Verde · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.6
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Dota2last resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT3040%12 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys - Game 2 Winnerbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$12,322Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+211%+$25,998.7
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys - Game 1 Winnerbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$19,356Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$19,355.54
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$5,474Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,473.71
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Iron Wing · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$4,546Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+150.9%+$6,858.93
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$2,614Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,613.97
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$883Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$882.98
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winnerbacked Iron Wing · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$2,210Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,210.28
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+97.6%+$246.99
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Vici Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$437Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$437.34
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winnerbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,078Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,078
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,041Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+73.1%+$760.62
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Resilience · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$40
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,455Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+99.3%+$1,444.99
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$910Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$910.03
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+207.7%+$135
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Vici Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.89
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$194
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Nigma Galaxy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+102.4%+$252.99
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,083Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,083.23
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$572Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$571.99
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winnerbacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.7
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$228
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Iron Wing · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,737Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+49.8%+$1,363.33
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winnerbacked Iron Wing · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$191
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-87.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$13.8
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+180.9%+$90.16
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$118.58
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.13
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.88
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.33
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$77.78
Will Poland win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.34
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Iceland win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$278Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$277.96
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.61
Will Norway win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$92.86
Will Ireland win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.22
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.84
Will Australia win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.41
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$257.29
Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$156.12
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce break up in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$12
All 23 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST1711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-81.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$356Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$356.14
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$189.7
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$123.2
Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$10.6
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$76.2
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$47.01
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $500 million domestically by January 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$595Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST+51.5%+$306.75
Will 'Moana 2' gross less than $135m on 5-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST-100%-$450
Will 'Moana 2' gross more than $180m on 5-day opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$4,057Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST-100%-$4,057.34
Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 90 or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST-100%-$47.74
Will 'Wicked' gross less than $95m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$299.71
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $135m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$961Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST+63%+$605.45
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $61-70m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$25.1
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross less than $45m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$17.88
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $53-61m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$54.03
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross more than $70m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.92
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $45-53m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$106.56
All 17 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid+34.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.6
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$119
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$15.2
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$74.7
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$356Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$356.05
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$1,118.47
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$203.53
Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+88.7%+$45.12
Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$19.5
Will Trump say "Elon" in his speech after the election is called?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$311Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$311.29
Will Trump say "Border" in his speech after the election is called?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$57.88
Will Trump say "God" in his speech after the election is called?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+635.3%+$518.13
Will Trump say "Kamala" in his speech after the election is called?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$286Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+1,131.2%+$3,229.59
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$496Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$496.08
All 16 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-53.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$804Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$804.16
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.79
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$2,516Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$2,515.73
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,663Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$1,662.98
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$310.2
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+177.8%+$512
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$466Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$466.03
Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$30.9
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,860Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$1,859.96
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,045Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+229.9%+$2,402.34
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$78
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+43.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-77.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliersbacked Virginia Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.84
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclonesbacked Iowa State Cyclones · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$356Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+109.5%+$389.3
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked TCU Horned Frogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.7
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Saint Louis Billikens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.25
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskiesbacked Furman Paladins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$501Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$500.91
All 5 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+343.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,616Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+1,353.1%+$21,863.74
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$2,751Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,751.04
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$4,165Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+73.4%+$3,055.77
Thunder vs. Sunsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$619Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+47.6%+$294.67
All 4 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+157.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoevenbacked Rico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$4,491Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,490.83
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoorbacked Demoor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$8,071Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+673.3%+$54,340.13
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2backed Dubois · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$585Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$585.04
All 3 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+325.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+341.7%+$401.07
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+309.3%+$781.85
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+71.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$559Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$196.56
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,037Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$1,123.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$301.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 20, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Red Bull win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$11.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$49
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Conor McGregor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$24,305Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$24,305.43
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$126.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.