TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Ireland win Eurovision 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,039,210
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$803,640

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,039,210 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c304,785$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.0422927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02d3…2136backed Yes0c103,364$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.46230%0 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes0c101,790$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.26283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-93.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes0c93,382$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.56561.8%1 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2388…a491backed Yes1c80,162$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.1490%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c49,997$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.99362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick1cpaid-91.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes0c43,735$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.21219.5%2 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick3cpaid-63.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c26,682$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.73370%0 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f5…f1c1backed Yes0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-91.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes0c22,524$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b06…98cebacked Yes0c18,500$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd6d…f860backed Yes2c14,121$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.32213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-63.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x817f…b97cbacked Yes0c13,670$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9520…fa6ebacked Yes1c11,933$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.66100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c10,948$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.45680%0 W · 68 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfbb…ffccbacked Yes0c10,010$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffe2…c78ebacked Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes0c9,250$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.75330%0 W · 33 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Yes0c8,382$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.58254%1 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ff…fc59backed Yes1c7,416$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.74220%0 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1017…19a1backed Yes1c6,962$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd882…0c09backed Yes0c6,522$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.572425%6 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes0c5,965$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.75385.3%2 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-91.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes1c5,677$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.38520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-73%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes0c5,610$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.94333%1 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-87.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes0c5,555$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.22234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-87.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4de…6743backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5f0…b6bebacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07e8…c939backed Yes0c5,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19310%0 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d3…525dbacked Yes0c4,383$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffff…9401backed Yes0c3,710$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca47…216fbacked Yes0c3,180$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x310d…b64dbacked Yes1c3,070$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.42230%0 W · 23 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c85…9e34backed Yes0c2,760$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.04263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-94.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe918…dd23backed Yes1c2,649$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b77…c05abacked Yes1c2,600$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4772…5360backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab1b…5c6abacked Yes1c2,260$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e77…d409backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a3…20d7backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick7cpaid-77.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0982…5deabacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10263.8%1 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-85.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x474c…faedbacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2789…96a2backed Yes1c2,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1490%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec33…69a5backed Yes1c1,924$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes1c945.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.26429.5%4 W · 38 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0584…f0d8backed Yes2c602.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.