TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,692,530
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,106,878

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,692,530 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c545,763$1,092 inLost-$1,091.53362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick1cpaid-91.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x310d…b64dbacked Yes0c423,784$1,941 inLost-$1,940.95230%0 W · 23 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c276,137$551 inLost-$551.3822927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02d3…2136backed Yes0c193,405$387 inLost-$386.81230%0 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c122,791$246 inLost-$245.5840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes0c62,663$274 inLost-$273.656628.8%19 W · 47 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-46.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c61,736$173 inLost-$173.31370%0 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Yes0c61,499$136 inLost-$136.5254%1 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes0c50,000$130 inLost-$130219.5%2 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick3cpaid-63.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes0c41,974$93 inLost-$92.86234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-87.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f5…f1c1backed Yes0c37,002$100 inLost-$100362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-91.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c35,000$80 inLost-$80210%0 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes0c25,404$51 inLost-$51.21180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c17,177$48 inLost-$47.51680%0 W · 68 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ea1…10fbbacked Yes0c16,667$50 inLost-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes0c16,666$56 inLost-$55.551717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-62.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa85…1301backed Yes0c15,000$45 inLost-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb351…20d1backed Yes0c13,000$26 inLost-$2640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07e7…a343backed Yes0c12,336$36 inLost-$36.4880%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost-$20330%0 W · 33 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe85d…15eabacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost-$20280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57cf…5f1ebacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost-$3030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fd8…af91backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56f8…4910backed Yes0c9,697$29 inLost-$29.09520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-71%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcad3…0bf5backed Yes0c7,500$15 inLost-$1590%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes0c7,500$15 inLost-$15561.8%1 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe04b…aae8backed Yes0c5,899$13 inLost-$12.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07e8…c939backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost-$15310%0 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f47…0043backed Yes0c4,333$13 inLost-$1350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c5e…8919backed Yes0c4,010$11 inLost-$10.5250%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefbb…65e8backed Yes0c3,906$15 inLost-$15.0280%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbe5…ed49backed Yes0c3,400$15 inLost-$14.680%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacd0…3fe2backed Yes1c3,000$18 inLost-$1830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd347…f17bbacked Yes0c2,838$11 inLost-$11.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee8…87fabacked Yes1c2,600$13 inLost-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e2e…a7bbbacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8756…c8f1backed Yes1c1,870$10 inLost-$10.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.