TailMyPicks
Market

Music · resolved market

Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,328,128
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$514,971

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,328,128 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c191,397$736 inLost-$735.5522927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x310d…b64dbacked Yes0c91,568$410 inLost-$409.7230%0 W · 23 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes0c82,550$230 inLost-$230.03283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-93.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c54,836$213 inLost-$213.19370%0 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2388…a491backed Yes0c30,523$122 inLost-$122.4990%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes0c27,479$135 inLost-$135.45561.8%1 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c25,992$113 inLost-$113.2680%0 W · 68 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f5…f1c1backed Yes0c23,750$100 inLost-$100362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-91.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes1c14,178$94 inLost-$93.66333%1 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-87.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xec5e…3d71backed Yes1c14,035$94 inLost-$93.683928.2%11 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+345.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes0c12,904$56 inLost-$55.63280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes1c11,556$71 inLost-$71.24329.4%3 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-73.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19c1…708fbacked Yes1c10,326$151 inLost-$150.740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes2c10,316$215 inLost-$215.167723.4%18 W · 59 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes1c10,001$74 inLost-$742524%6 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65d9…8608backed Yes1c7,299$51 inLost-$51.09911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-82.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes1c7,278$61 inLost-$61.0415119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes0c6,718$18 inLost-$18.04385.3%2 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-91.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes1c5,300$32 inLost-$31.8330%0 W · 33 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07e8…c939backed Yes0c5,000$23 inLost-$23310%0 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes1c5,000$25 inLost-$25219.5%2 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick3cpaid-63.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93be…d0dbbacked Yes1c4,000$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca9…e688backed Yes1c4,000$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b2…5fa3backed Yes1c2,909$17 inLost-$16.9430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2e1…e094backed Yes0c2,892$13 inLost-$12.71911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick4cpaid-47.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x176b…1fe9backed Yes1c2,571$23 inLost-$22.541216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0982…5deabacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost-$10263.8%1 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-85.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes1c2,300$12 inLost-$11.5234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-87.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x125e…9440backed Yes1c2,156$13 inLost-$12.9420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aac…d86fbacked Yes1c2,132$11 inLost-$10.6630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa464…e0ffbacked Yes1c2,128$11 inLost-$11.3830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost-$101910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-54.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c1,641$15 inLost-$14.924732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x468e…bbcfbacked Yes2c1,470$28 inLost-$28714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe82…5c81backed Yes1c1,292$12 inLost-$11.59333.3%31 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+76%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes2c1,258$19 inLost-$18.92429.5%4 W · 38 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,175$18 inLost-$18.414629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb915…7962backed Yes2c941.11$17 inLost-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.