TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,141,983
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,758,818

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,141,983 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c418,146$836 inLost-$836.29362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick1cpaid-91.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02d3…2136backed Yes0c129,085$129 inLost-$129.08230%0 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c122,460$351 inLost-$350.8622927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes0c70,024$90 inLost-$90.02561.8%1 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f5…f1c1backed Yes0c54,499$100 inLost-$100362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-91.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb351…20d1backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost-$10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes0c49,285$99 inLost-$98.57280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes1c39,018$200 inLost-$20010630.2%32 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c38,000$96 inLost-$96370%0 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes0c31,280$64 inLost-$63.84234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-87.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b5…280cbacked Yes0c30,037$100 inLost-$1001225%3 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ecf…a4a2backed Yes0c20,167$60 inLost-$60.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd88e…7541backed Yes0c20,067$60 inLost-$60.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c15,000$30 inLost-$30210%0 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6568…f587backed Yes0c14,200$14 inLost-$14.2560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+68.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3557…eb43backed Yes0c12,717$38 inLost-$38.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes0c11,111$22 inLost-$22.221717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-62.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c10,222$41 inLost-$40.92680%0 W · 68 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5f0…b6bebacked Yes0c10,022$20 inLost-$20156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…43ddbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$10330%0 W · 33 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaf9…66c6backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9520…fa6ebacked Yes0c8,888$36 inLost-$35.55100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b78…b81bbacked Yes0c7,500$23 inLost-$22.570%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c46…a137backed Yes0c7,421$35 inLost-$35520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-67.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Yes1c6,897$42 inLost-$42.17254%1 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3f9…3649backed Yes0c5,987$18 inLost-$17.9620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c5,972$14 inLost-$14.061478.2%12 W · 135 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ee…c2b1backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f47…0043backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost-$2050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5cf…c503backed Yes0c4,500$18 inLost-$1840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee99…8664backed Yes0c4,000$16 inLost-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda3a…79a7backed Yes0c3,750$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a3…20d7backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost-$101711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick7cpaid-77.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0982…5deabacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost-$10263.8%1 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-85.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe123…b1fbbacked Yes1c2,429$12 inLost-$12.1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fc6…4d5dbacked Yes1c1,389$16 inLost-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab6a…bcc5backed Yes2c586$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.