TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,708,642
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$663,331

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,708,642 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes0c183,954$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.41283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-93.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes1c135,851$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.27333%1 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-87.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdf14…6b86backed Yes0c110,493$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x310d…b64dbacked Yes0c101,824$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.55230%0 W · 23 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c76,364$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.0922927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc33…d2f0backed Yes1c66,667$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-79.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes0c58,065$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.26561.8%1 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick1cpaid-91.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c47,540$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.16370%0 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes2c41,956$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.217723.4%18 W · 59 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfc…1ab3backed Yes0c33,128$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0650%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Yes0c25,455$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.283330.3%10 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e9…f9bebacked Yes0c25,134$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.27190%0 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed Yes1c20,965$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Yes1c20,060$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.31216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-75%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccd8…1818backed Yes0c20,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbc2…b496backed Yes1c19,999$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d0…2eb0backed Yes0c16,667$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c16,413$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.43680%0 W · 68 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9b9…c2b6backed Yes0c14,803$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-59.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad0…89abbacked Yes1c14,777$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f5…f1c1backed Yes1c13,991$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-91.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3af6…a11abacked Yes0c12,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e69…cc45backed Yes1c11,794$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5335…0b0fbacked Yes0c10,309$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.65150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98fe…a315backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc67d…1f8abacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5797…49ecbacked Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-42.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6260…6a8ebacked Yes1c8,490$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6be2…962abacked Yes1c7,345$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf09f…05f9backed Yes1c6,838$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-50.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x48c1…d2cdbacked Yes1c6,706$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8360%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccc5…9354backed Yes0c6,690$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-64.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f63…c5d0backed Yes0c6,500$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-64.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x915c…c1a9backed Yes1c6,344$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick19cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07e7…a343backed Yes0c5,422$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5380%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ede…c417backed Yes0c5,361$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.441921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-60.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes1c5,162$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.81330%0 W · 33 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf162…1aa2backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36e0…19b9backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104259.5%25 W · 17 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+26.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3b8c…6bfcbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07e8…c939backed Yes1c5,000$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29310%0 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-87.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4732…2f88backed Yes0c4,667$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Yes1c4,570$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.85254%1 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa149…9db9backed Yes0c4,503$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x973f…f22cbacked Yes0c4,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06b0…afd6backed Yes1c4,333$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aab…bce3backed Yes0c4,203$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c4,179$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.31329.4%3 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-73.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a46…0667backed Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1b9…98ffbacked Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-69.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf6ec…3bfbbacked Yes1c3,833$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ace…98e6backed Yes1c3,502$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-53.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d69…50acbacked Yes0c3,500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40b9…d521backed Yes0c3,286$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ae…66c4backed Yes1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes1c2,911$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4715119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2da8…c5ffbacked Yes1c2,857$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick4cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a20…4a07backed Yes0c2,723$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf38…c0f0backed Yes1c2,628$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a10…63d3backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d3…525dbacked Yes1c2,366$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd30…1d56backed Yes1c2,228$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfbb…ffccbacked Yes1c2,214$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d44…1a1ebacked Yes1c2,174$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cb…b6cabacked Yes1c2,167$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa1b…e2e2backed Yes1c2,126$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34b1…68fbbacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2e1…e094backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick4cpaid-47.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9337…9dd3backed Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1290%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6d5…d557backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcad3…0bf5backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c10…6747backed Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1260%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,898$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.044629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c85…9e34backed Yes1c1,763$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.01263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-94.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x179e…ebe8backed Yes1c1,738$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.43160%0 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x233f…051cbacked Yes1c1,518$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122123.8%5 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-38.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c82…ef47backed Yes1c1,467$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3f60…ac50backed Yes1c1,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d3…76bebacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c955.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4724732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5b…e1b1backed Yes1c947.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.650%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes1c856.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.47429.5%4 W · 38 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.