TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x4732…2f88

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
153
Categories scored
24
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: La Liga, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category La Liga at 57 out of 100; worst NBA at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT2347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+142.2%+$306.45
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$89.7
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$300.19
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.04
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.4
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.9
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.16
Luis Diaz: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.23
Desire Doue: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.7
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$72.66
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$163.06
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+100%+$61.98
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)backed Real Madrid CF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$143.3
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$81
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.2
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+49.3%+$99
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+132.6%+$153.9
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.5
Will Gonzalo García be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$162.45
Will Kylian Mbappé be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will FC Porto beat Inter Miami?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Inter Miami beat FC Porto?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$200.85
Will PSG beat Atlético Madrid?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT+100%+$200
All 23 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST2133.3%7 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+47.1%+$94.08
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Apple announces iPhone assembly in the U.S. before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$129.6
Will Elon apologize to Trump before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+91.9%+$181.9
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+104.4%+$209.81
US-EU trade agreement by July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$308.16
Will Trump apologize to Elon before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Trump confirmed taking Ozempic before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Iranian officials visit the White House in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Trump x Khamenei talk before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Debt ceiling raised or suspended before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.94
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+208.9%+$209.77
Trump x Elon talk by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT+566.7%+$283.08
Will Elon apologize to Trump before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT+525%+$336
Will Trump apologize to Elon by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
All 21 picks, newest first.
UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT1850%9 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Islam Makhachev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$94.8
O/U 0.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.25
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.74
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Derrick Lewis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.1
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Steve Garcia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.19
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Joel Álvarez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.32
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Quillan Salkilld · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+25%+$50
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Aaron Pico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$38.54
Will Ateba Gautier win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$56
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$504Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$503.7
UFC Fight Night: Topuria vs. Almakhan (Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Topuria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+75.4%+$150.93
Ankalaev vs. Pereirabacked Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$106.25
Dvalishvili vs. Sandhagenbacked Dvalishvili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$56.41
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveirabacked Topuria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,699Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$806.15
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckleybacked Buckley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.5
Dvalishvili vs. O'Malleybacked Dvalishvili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$85.71
Muhammad vs. Della Maddalenabacked Muhammad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Shevchenko vs. Fiorotbacked Shevchenko · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$52.01
All 18 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+102.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.2
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$397Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$396.58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$142.55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$356Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$355.9
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$298Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+73.3%+$218.27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$433Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+47.4%+$205.57
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$299.83
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+25%+$75
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+269.7%+$536.21
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.94
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+64.8%+$194.54
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$566.67
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+300%+$300
Will France recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT+669.2%+$249.96
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$175.76
All 16 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$999Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$666
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+40.8%+$81.78
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$100.8
Will Red Bull Racing finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$103.19
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+42.9%+$90
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.29
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.27
Will McLaren have the highest Constructor score at the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.5
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
F1 Canadian Grand Prix: Safety Car? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$94.96
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+400%+$200
All 14 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+25.9%+$51.91
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+54.3%+$55.26
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,626Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$1,625.92
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,515Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,515.31
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,006Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+25%+$251.48
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will the ECB announce no change at the June meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$98.75
All 9 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-55.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Donald Trump say "Maria" or "Corina" or "Machado" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Donald Trump say "CIA" or "FBI" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$50.6
Will Donald Trump say "cocaine" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$41.5
Will Donald Trump say "border" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$39.6
Will Donald Trump say "Russia" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+84.3%+$41.18
Maduro out in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25%+$50
All 7 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+73.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+125.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
La Liga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-73.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+534.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+156.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+810.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump x Xi talk before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$44.8
China-Vietnam trade deal before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT+1,576.9%+$788.43
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+137%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+137%+$136.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+66.9%+$66.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ebola case in the US by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$75
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonsecabacked Casper Ruud · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.