Us Politics · resolved market
Debt ceiling raised or suspended before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdee42c75e8f3eba960757f489ec38ffe57e56a1a94ed5d25c80182ea018eec2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 9c | 967.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe587…0b6bbacked Yes | 8c | 750.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…2f88backed Yes | 8c | 682.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x387f…22ccbacked Yes | 2c | 522.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 503.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 66c | 426.47$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.16 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 16c | 357.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 32c | 311.41$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 245$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 12c | 240$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 156.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed No | 73c | 77.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…a089backed Yes | 32c | 62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 33c | 61.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 45c | 39.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcb…8569backed Yes | 30c | 38.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 28c | 37.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…02ffbacked No | 64c | 32.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 53cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 74c | 26.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…3d57backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.