TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x88b6…3cff

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
202
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: AI, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category AI at 57 out of 100; worst Middle East at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST5265.4%34 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 52 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon register the America Party in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+81.8%+$45
Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify before Congress in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,815Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+40.5%+$735.25
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+173.2%+$317
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+30.2%+$58.04
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.4%+$55.25
Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$803Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.3%+$307.22
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$577Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$577.31
Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$311.96
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$105
Will Ghislaine Maxwell cut a deal with the Feds by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$52.5
Harvard international students ban ended before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$671Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+115.8%+$776.42
Trump x Elon talk before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$38.82
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+92.5%+$120.1
Will Elon register the America Party in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$115
Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$569Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+28.8%+$163.97
Will Elon tag @realDonaldTrump on X in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+40.5%+$72.1
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+85.1%+$114.93
Will AG Blanche meet with Ghislaine Maxwell by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$153.21
Will AG Blanche meet with Ghislaine Maxwell by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$489.7
Will Bill Ackman endorse Eric Adams?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$90.96
Elon forms new party within 1 day of the spending bill passing?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$570Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$180.03
Trump travel ban on more countries before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$50
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,357Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+63.7%+$865.05
Another US military action against Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+150%+$270
Debt ceiling raised or suspended before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+39.2%+$33.8
Showing 25 of 52 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT4353.5%23 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+117.6%+$216.19
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,155Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$345
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$248.64
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$97.07
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$8,419Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+40.6%+$3,421
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$4,322Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$4,321.69
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$19.24
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$28.37
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$904Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+142.2%+$1,286.15
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$8,420Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$8,420.34
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$26,802Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+28.1%+$7,544.29
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 17 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$261.6
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$27,816Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$27,815.75
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11,785Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+31.5%+$3,714.55
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,088Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,088.42
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$38.42
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$229.97
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$962Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+162.1%+$1,559.65
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Grok 4 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$73.57
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$350
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$227.5
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$240
Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$328Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$328.25
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$888Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$887.63
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST2846.4%13 W · 15 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick63cpaid-30.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Middle East — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,610Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,609.99
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+41.4%+$99.24
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$167.49
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$695Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+43.9%+$305
Will France recognize Palestine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$160.82
Israel x Syria security deal before September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$87.5
Israel strikes Yemen by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$160
Israel strikes Iran before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$763Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+31.1%+$237.5
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$392Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+27.4%+$107.5
Another Israel strike on Yemen by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$385Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$115
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.04
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$97.5
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$487Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$486.88
Another Houthi strike on Israel before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+43.4%+$75.62
Strike on Israel's Dimonah nuclear base in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$706Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+35.9%+$253.48
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$457Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$457.3
US strike on Iran on June  25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$50
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$470.35
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$978Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$977.5
Israel military action against Iran before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$70.35
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$767Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$766.99
Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$374Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+33.6%+$125.8
Israel military action on Yemen before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$348Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$347.6
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$373Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$372.95
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$4,679Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$4,679.33
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT1947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.51
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.02
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,065Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,065.2
Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 27m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+38.9%+$114.74
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $145m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$957Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT+29.6%+$283.3
"Happy Gilmore 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be 70 or higher?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$87.5
Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$645Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT+55.1%+$355.13
Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $116-124m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.94
Will "M3GAN 2.0" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $16M?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$216.2
Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $20m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$497Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+32.7%+$162.25
Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross less than $20m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$348Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+187.2%+$650.63
Will 'Thunderbolts' gross more than $82m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$173.25
Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $77m and 82m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$134.11
Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $72m and 77m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$997Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+25.5%+$253.89
Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $73-82m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$98.14
Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2025, EST+420.6%+$518.26
Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 50?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2025, EST-100%-$164.72
Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be greater than 80?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$445Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2025, EST+27.2%+$121.2
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $45-53m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$707Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$706.85
All 19 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST1752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$577Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$577.07
49ers vs. Eaglesbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$590Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+171.2%+$1,010
Rams vs. Panthersbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+38.9%+$112
Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,480Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+35.1%+$520
Jalen Hurts: 2+ Touchdownsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$160
Eagles vs. Chargersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,571Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+59.1%+$928.51
Bears vs. Eaglesbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$428Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+61.3%+$262.2
Cardi B and Stefon Diggs breakup before August? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$378Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+64%+$242.08
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$265.03
Will the Browns draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$146.71
Will the Giants draft Abdul Carter?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$653Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$652.91
Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$205.59
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,982Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+25.8%+$769.27
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,031Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$2,030.81
Will Jalen Hurts score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,040Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+92.3%+$960.2
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$139.44
Vikings vs. Ramsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$506Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST+29.5%+$149.12
All 17 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick56cpaid+30.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+106%+$132.78
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$50
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$190
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+74.4%+$115.58
Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.29
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$315Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$185
Will Russia capture Mykolaivka before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$105
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.04
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$389Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+125.1%+$486.54
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+80.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Chess — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick64cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+233.3%+$350
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+181.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$887Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+181.9%+$1,613.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+26.9%+$52.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Isar Aerospace successful orbital launch in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25%+$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jiankui He launch a memecoin before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$439Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$439.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will anyone say "Alexa Plus" during the Q2 2025 Amazon earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$205.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,665Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,664.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.