TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "cocaine" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,293
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,955

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,293 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x134a…9e42backed No78c2,707$2,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.31764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6636…bf37backed Yes15c1,981$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.61922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-61.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked No76c1,500$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.991464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad4e…12f1backed No75c931.99$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.231346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes2c887.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.31333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-57.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d1…1e37backed Yes25c803.01$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed No74c769.95$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.091553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Yes25c759.99$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.781553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes20c699.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1404134.1%14 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x578f…34c0backed Yes23c697.44$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes4c650$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6650…5097backed Yes24c619.26$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e1…b0f6backed Yes23c499.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b07…de95backed Yes24c425.46$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3bf…1c60backed Yes72c415.77$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x183a…d514backed Yes22c400$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-67.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a86…6bbdbacked Yes14c399.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes24c399.99$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966841.2%28 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc8…19d4backed Yes21c393.29$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed No79c355.36$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.392835.7%10 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes24c347.81$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.732050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f8…d7bdbacked No75c318.07$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-33.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c10…df5cbacked No59c310$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1262552%13 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bbf…3f4bbacked Yes18c304.08$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No76c300$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb41…5b10backed No73c299.96$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No77c281.38$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.943145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x871e…6566backed No77c269.98$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No4c239.56$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.191330.8%4 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick12cpaid+977.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No80c216.55$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.48650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa414…d03dbacked Yes28c214.98$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.131216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-65.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4732…2f88backed Yes20c208.51$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-55.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed Yes24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc17…52e6backed Yes24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-46.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x706c…7752backed Yes23c199.2$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.78933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+1,596.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed44…0cf6backed Yes29c197.16$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3119…c8f8backed Yes28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes14c172.18$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.05633.2%2 W · 61 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd482…355dbacked No75c140$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.421442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No77c118.69$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.696040%24 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d93…455cbacked Yes25c110$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes35c101.19$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58ff…7e02backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4deb…0ab4backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0395…c9edbacked Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3379…72b9backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc081…224dbacked Yes27c92.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x55d4…88ecbacked Yes23c87.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Yes19c83.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-30.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcc9b…c6f4backed Yes24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes21c82.84$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.292222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x738f…ba83backed Yes22c80.01$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.61323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes40c77.5$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes23c70.32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.154316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a04…1993backed No77c70$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.11283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+44.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes24c65.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.02812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-74.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ec…62c3backed Yes24c62.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53a0…4af0backed No76c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.61540%6 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x83e0…1f8cbacked Yes34c58.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c09…c556backed Yes20c54.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa172…0b26backed Yes26c53.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9960%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+37.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fea…3bdebacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes22c46.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.14248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-71.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes35c45.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1630%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4f3…d984backed No70c45.41$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-52.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe35e…eaf7backed Yes31c44.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes34c44.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.32268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+41.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x72d8…adfebacked No73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.83100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+58.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ef9…7e63backed No79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e8b…856ebacked No71c28.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.33933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb701…59f7backed No76c26.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+62.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked No73c26.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.971118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-70.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0350…f978backed No77c25.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No72c20.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.836771.6%48 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.62454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c65…845dbacked No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc720…8f88backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd121…99debacked No74c13.46$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.46560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.