Venezuela · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73d428aefd1af789adec8748b2a98b5f5dbced7c37208cd8444c3621988a2946
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9787…26b5backed Yes | 5c | 10,073$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e30…f6e9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be9…47e1backed Yes | 2c | 9,500$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…6afdbacked Yes | 1c | 7,522$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bf…1c60backed Yes | 2c | 7,502$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 1c | 6,061$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.79 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a9…d21cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,280$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…2740backed Yes | 3c | 5,055$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a8…842fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,724$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e1…5c0cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,531$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 24cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12c7…bef9backed Yes | 2c | 2,359$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 3c | 2,307$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +216.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14f5…eb92backed Yes | 3c | 1,861$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…87afbacked Yes | 3c | 1,775$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x082c…f89ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,681$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe161…7854backed Yes | 2c | 1,677$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d93…455cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,668$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc69…66bbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad63…27babacked Yes | 2c | 1,474$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…b009backed Yes | 2c | 1,351$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cd…2e45backed Yes | 5c | 1,263$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…2896backed Yes | 5c | 1,085$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…ce7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,022$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…a108backed Yes | 3c | 887.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 2c | 731.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa51c…89f0backed Yes | 3c | 701.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…20c5backed Yes | 3c | 660.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…0006backed Yes | 2c | 653.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf948…3c5fbacked Yes | 5c | 592.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa141…1ebebacked Yes | 3c | 522.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…7089backed Yes | 4c | 512.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…1dfbbacked Yes | 2c | 501.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…4edfbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 70c | 476.29$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.89 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa414…d03dbacked Yes | 4c | 470.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…0cf6backed Yes | 5c | 468.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939e…1974backed Yes | 3c | 407.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c228backed Yes | 3c | 371.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9b…c6f4backed Yes | 3c | 345.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…5fddbacked Yes | 4c | 342.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b53…29eabacked Yes | 6c | 339.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…8412backed Yes | 3c | 334$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…5c90backed Yes | 5c | 330.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes | 7c | 298.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…bde4backed Yes | 5c | 255.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…ff87backed Yes | 6c | 252.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Yes | 5c | 204.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "CIA" or "FBI" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "China" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Cilia" or "Flores" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Cuba" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "F-35" or "drone" or "helicopter" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Iran" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Maduro" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Maria" or "Corina" or "Machado" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Minnesota" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "border" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "cocaine" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "communist" or "communism" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "dictator" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.