Venezuela · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Cuba" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b7282b6737a580c70ee5ce896bff014126c6c5b4231f094526b4ae645def32d

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,427
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $4,863

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,427 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8499…83a8backed No	71c	458.29$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.33	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	+147.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed No	73c	199.98$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.99	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-3.9wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4417…20ffbacked Yes	26c	161$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.14	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.74per pick	26cpaid	+284.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71ed…d338backed Yes	41c	160$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.4	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.53per pick	48cpaid	+114.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	59c	158$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.68	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ce…af12backed No	55c	149.1$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No	59c	146$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.32	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes	41c	121.7$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.21	13	100%13 W · 0 L	+4.6wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+62.4%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes	25c	116$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2010…18febacked Yes	34c	111.49$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.6	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+2.4wins	+0.18per pick	43cpaid	+80.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed Yes	45c	111.35$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.35	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55d4…88ecbacked Yes	29c	103.85$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.85	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce24…6239backed Yes	27c	100$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.64per pick	36cpaid	+196.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes	41c	73.17$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.17	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+3.2wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbcad…0047backed Yes	27c	62.8$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.97	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd86e…ee3ebacked No	77c	62.09$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.62	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x887f…a4cbbacked Yes	44c	52.15$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.14	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked No	55c	49.72$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.36	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e1e…0f8abacked Yes	42c	47.3$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.3	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.25per pick	25cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd482…355dbacked No	56c	40$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.6	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	26c	40$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.6	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0e7…9281backed Yes	32c	40$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.2	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	64cpaid	+20%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dee…9a79backed Yes	41c	37.66$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.05	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-10%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	34c	33.85$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.37	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32c3…5dc5backed No	61c	32.57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	57cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No	67c	30$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.1	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7603…e3c1backed No	71c	30$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.3	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.30per pick	55cpaid	-62%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No	72c	30$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.55	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53a0…4af0backed No	57c	26.65$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.26	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No	60c	25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	67	71.6%48 W · 19 L	+4.5wins	+0.07per pick	65cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8c3…0d01backed Yes	50c	24.72$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.36	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	57cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No	58c	23.81$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.81	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed7e…2fe2backed No	60c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	58cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "Cuba" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event