Venezuela · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "hell" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb91ec2cf3439dd9ad28b9fa9e7b84c09bee1fbcdf959240c9fa7f6c4a957759
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfcd…9111backed No | 2c | 1,010$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c2e0backed Yes | 76c | 253$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 24c | 253$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…af26backed Yes | 63c | 251$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed No | 37c | 251$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 37c | 247.2$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca0…a4fcbacked No | 33c | 230.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 69c | 227$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 16c | 199.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.98 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…8c3dbacked No | 31c | 163.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…6d88backed No | 37c | 163.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41eb…da1dbacked No | 64c | 155.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3119…c8f8backed Yes | 75c | 133.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 61c | 119.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabad…312dbacked Yes | 72c | 90.63$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 53c | 66.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…e3c1backed Yes | 66c | 64.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2f…ee3bbacked No | 38c | 60.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaace…4d5abacked No | 37c | 53.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.3wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 52c | 52.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 29c | 48.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…4af0backed No | 42c | 48.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 34c | 46.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…712ebacked No | 47c | 45.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed Yes | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +26%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…17cabacked Yes | 59c | 43.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8e9cbacked Yes | 61c | 41.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dee…9a79backed Yes | 74c | 40.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed Yes | 59c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 66c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…5e6abacked No | 38c | 34.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48dd…e8b6backed Yes | 59c | 33.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb0…ae76backed No | 47c | 31.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc850…df3abacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e6…6bebbacked Yes | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…c515backed Yes | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…c41fbacked Yes | 71c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed No | 66c | 27.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f2…da0ebacked Yes | 56c | 26.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb714…a191backed Yes | 62c | 26.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed No | 46c | 26.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…b59bbacked Yes | 62c | 25.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…07e4backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3793…170abacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc284…6a9dbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba54…409fbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e7…9281backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed7e…2fe2backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f5…e53ebacked Yes | 56c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "CIA" or "FBI" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "China" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Cilia" or "Flores" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Cuba" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "F-35" or "drone" or "helicopter" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Iran" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Maduro" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Maria" or "Corina" or "Machado" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Minnesota" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "border" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "cocaine" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "communist" or "communism" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "dictator" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.