Venezuela · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Cilia" or "Flores" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x504b2e66b8564081616f755503275027e79a3d150a3933adfd2f794ab7727916
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 42c | 3,083$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.14 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Yes | 56c | 1,218$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.21 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…cc49backed Yes | 59c | 771.16$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.82 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…e1b2backed Yes | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31f2…558dbacked Yes | 56c | 637.96$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 48c | 499.97$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.89 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed No | 53c | 497.94$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…e375backed Yes | 47c | 450.84$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…e06cbacked No | 57c | 424.89$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 44c | 399.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…d819backed No | 43c | 333.46$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed No | 42c | 287.24$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff17…5745backed Yes | 54c | 241.67$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.67 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5e…8fb9backed Yes | 57c | 216$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd680…2251backed Yes | 54c | 210$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed No | 52c | 179.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.59 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…ff87backed Yes | 56c | 161.79$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.79 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 49c | 150$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 45c | 150$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca00…2256backed Yes | 52c | 115.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 51c | 115.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 66c | 106.66$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +4.6wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bb…5048backed Yes | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8434…55fcbacked No | 30c | 75.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6caf…6833backed Yes | 52c | 72.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Yes | 48c | 68.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed Yes | 40c | 51.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee1…2a78backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x577f…3765backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e33…8b7abacked No | 50c | 49.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dee…9a79backed Yes | 61c | 49.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…1e04backed No | 50c | 37.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e63…3f8abacked Yes | 55c | 36.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f2…da0ebacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed No | 43c | 32.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2010…18febacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 41c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8124…938fbacked Yes | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…4af0backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Cilia" or "Flores" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "CIA" or "FBI" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "China" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Cuba" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "F-35" or "drone" or "helicopter" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Iran" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Maduro" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Maria" or "Corina" or "Machado" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Minnesota" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "border" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "cocaine" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "communist" or "communism" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "dictator" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.