Venezuela · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "communist" or "communism" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c6115a1ccea6e8037cd9fb903ea31bd79486759006613a739e3ecebc6af55b0

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,398
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $4,048

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,398 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xff05…fad7backed Yes	3c	361.22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.15	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c14…cc49backed No	75c	300$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.29	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+2.0wins	+0.20per pick	50cpaid	+50.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	25c	272.96$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.24	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3424…3907backed Yes	47c	250$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No	60c	240.44$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.04	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+2.1wins	+0.12per pick	53cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed No	55c	224.47$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.01	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-3.9wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked No	55c	200$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0702…d5f9backed Yes	45c	200$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	8c	171.61$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.44	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-71.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked No	53c	169.28$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.56	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed Yes	45c	166.89$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	39c	163.24$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.24	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No	51c	150.2$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.6	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ff…fa1bbacked No	58c	149.99$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.8	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+40.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d86…5073backed No	74c	126.55$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.92	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6b9…8db8backed Yes	13c	119.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed No	55c	111$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.95	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+1.8wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+58.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed Yes	42c	100$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b1b…9457backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a34…47e9backed Yes	44c	90.91$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bc7…ff87backed Yes	49c	71.43$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No	72c	58.61$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.41	22	68.2%15 W · 7 L	+3.5wins	+0.16per pick	52cpaid	+41.6%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes	40c	57.2$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.7	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb92…c583backed Yes	41c	48.06$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.86	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a23…bfddbacked Yes	44c	45.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b6…9344backed Yes	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+45.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa24d…c232backed Yes	45c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb1bf…613ebacked Yes	43c	34.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No	75c	30.26$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.44	67	71.6%48 W · 19 L	+4.5wins	+0.07per pick	65cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae75…f66bbacked Yes	44c	27.11$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf24…b203backed Yes	42c	25.19$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.57	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes	40c	25.14$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.15	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No	58c	25$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.6	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2df5…51acbacked No	63c	23.98$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.98	17	82.4%14 W · 3 L	+3.2wins	+0.19per pick	64cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x343b…d892backed No	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No	57c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.6	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "communist" or "communism" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event