TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6978…08d8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
247
Categories scored
27
Categories below 50
18

Best Category: MLB, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 61 out of 100; worst Olympics at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$406Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$405.84
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$510
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$765Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$765
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,466Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,465.59
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$159.32
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$2,583Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$2,582.67
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$525Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$525
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$765Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$765
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$557Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$557.02
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$24,147Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$24,147.2
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$700
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$230
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+31.6%+$4.5
Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 28 over 30% on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+37%+$27
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,938Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+41.4%+$801.6
Iran strike on US military by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$72.6
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+194.1%+$330
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$344Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$96.99
Will Trump meet with Reza Pahlavi by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+34.5%+$46.2
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$7,815Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+28%+$2,185
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,399Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+25%+$350.5
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+75.4%+$43
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+40.8%+$145
Odds of Khamenei out in Jan over 20% on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$291.9
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST2934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-42.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Earnings — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wix.com (WIX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10.2
Will Snowflake (SNOW) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$13.31
Will Macy's (M) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$11.14
Will Asana (ASAN) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$10.22
Will Paramount Group (PSKY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+38.9%+$14
Will Celsius Holdings (CELH) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$37.5
Will Amplitude (AMPL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Will Exxon Mobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$568Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+32.2%+$182.5
Will Evercore (EVR) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.01
Will Kinder Morgan (KMI) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+285.1%+$117.04
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,183Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,183.5
Will Coca-Cola (KO) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$180
Will PulteGroup (PHM) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+37%+$27
Will American Express (AXP) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.13
Will Charles Schwab (SCHW) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$121.46
Will Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$902Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$368.43
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.1
Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.99
Will Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$165
Will Delta Air Lines (DAL) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT+49.8%+$117.42
Will PepsiCo (PEP) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$267.1
Will Constellation Brands (STZ) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$763Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$762.89
Will NIKE (NKE) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.45
Will Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$354Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT+46.9%+$166
Will Progress Software (PRGS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$259.63
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$251.69
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$215.25
Seeker FDV above $150M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$236.89
Seeker FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+82.7%+$165.42
Seeker FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$127.07
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$70.78
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$425Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$424.82
Football.Fun FDV above $70M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$391Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$390.52
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+72.5%+$105.06
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+38.9%+$70
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+25%+$20
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$23.5
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+56.3%+$18
Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$3,261Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$3,260.85
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,125Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+45.3%+$962.99
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$18,152Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+48.9%+$8,876.96
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$4,544Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$4,544.35
Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$78.38
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$304Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$303.89
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$92.32
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+66.7%+$40
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$159.46
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$531Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$531.17
All 24 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST1553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,264Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+45.8%+$1,036.24
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$91.67
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$41
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$423Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+26.5%+$111.86
Will Donald Trump say "Maria" or "Corina" or "Machado" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+119.9%+$102.97
Will Donald Trump say "cocaine" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$573Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+34.4%+$197.09
Will Donald Trump say "Minnesota" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+34.6%+$6.75
Will Donald Trump say "border" at least five times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+122.2%+$50
Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,767Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,766.84
Will Donald Trump say "communist" or "communism" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$42
Will Donald Trump say "dictator" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+108.3%+$130
Will Donald Trump say "Maduro" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,322Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,321.7
Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$565Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+46.8%+$264.77
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$130
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$180
All 15 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-48%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$160
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$295
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,762Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,761.5
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$2,318Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$2,317.97
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$43.09
Trump declares another national emergency by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$541Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+85.2%+$460.46
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$97.5
Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed fake?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+127.3%+$280
Epstein video removed from the DOJ website by Tuesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20.36
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$566Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+131.4%+$744.23
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$589Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$588.86
Will the federal government be shut down for 1–3 days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$283.02
US government shutdown by October 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$3,158Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+35.7%+$1,127.52
All 15 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-43.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$418Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$417.79
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,385Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,385
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$155.27
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+92.3%+$120
Will Donald Trump say "Biden's war" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$92.5
Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" or "boat" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$109.99
Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$124.5
Will Donald Trump say "card" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+49.3%+$82.5
Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$97.5
Will Donald Trump say "Tomahawk" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+35.1%+$65
Will Donald Trump say "referendum" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$172.5
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" at least once during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+28.2%+$55
Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+81.8%+$112.5
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.28per pick49cpaid-69.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
AI — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.29
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$7.35
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$533Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$533.32
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,786Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,786.5
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.75
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$13,940Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+37.2%+$5,182.55
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$21.5
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+35.1%+$65
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20.81
Will Shop: All your favorite brands be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$14.26
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$400.1
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$189
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$31
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.63
All 14 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-33.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Boxing — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$164.95
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $16 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$687Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$686.56
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$9,474Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$9,474.02
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $17 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$2,185Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+138.7%+$3,030.8
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$132.9
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+31.4%+$78.71
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,136Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$1,135.52
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1.1m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$74.77
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 800k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$812Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$811.92
Will the Logan Paul Break 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$314.97
Will the Logan Paul Break 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$100.93
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoorbacked Demoor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$571Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+327.4%+$1,867.74
All 12 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$350
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$3,716Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$3,716.32
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,240Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+33.9%+$760
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 29-January 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$779Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$778.6
Will Fartcoin hit $0.7 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+101.6%+$66.02
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+354.5%+$83.84
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,243Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,243.31
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$45,604Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.1%+$20,112.3
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$400.04
Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 13-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$489Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+53.4%+$261
All 10 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+478%+$413.5
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$680Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$320
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+270.4%+$292
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$932Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$932.49
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$754Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$754.13
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$51.2
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$543Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$542.69
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$38.85
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.08
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$53.48
All 10 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-3.7wins-0.37per pick67cpaid-42.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
Olympics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+113.6%+$53.21
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,840Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+117.4%+$2,159.91
Will Andrew Logino (CAN) win the gold medal for Ski Halfpipe - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$358.8
Will Henry Sildaru (EST) win the gold medal for Ski Halfpipe - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,876Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$2,876
Will Birk Irving (USA) win the gold medal for Ski Halfpipe - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$395Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$395
Will Luke Harrold (NZL) win the gold medal for Ski Halfpipe - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$635Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$635
Will Ben Harrington (NZL) win the gold medal for Ski Halfpipe - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$276.5
Will Brendan Mackay (CAN) win the gold medal for Ski Halfpipe - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$727Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$726.8
Will Dylan Marineau (CAN) win the gold medal for Ski Halfpipe - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$698Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$697.5
Men's Quarterfinals - Canada vs. Czechiabacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,360Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+47.1%+$640
All 10 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.38per pick51cpaid+88%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
MLB — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$10,753Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10,753.16
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+37.6%+$18.2
76ers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$2,440Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,440
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,900Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$3,100
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+150%+$150
2026 NBA All-Star: Player to hit half-court shot?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,792Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$1,791.91
Nuggets vs. Cavaliersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$3,667Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$3,667.41
Raptors vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$437Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$436.62
Timberwolves vs. Pistonsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$148.6
All 9 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+59.5%+$100.37
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+78.6%+$76.12
Will A Minecraft Movie be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$624Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$624.49
Will Zootopia 2 be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$210.8
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$88.14
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$28.5
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+26.6%+$105
All 8 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+76.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+93.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weatherlast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-68.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Texas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.75
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakersbacked Texas Longhorns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$660Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$660.45
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Rafael Fiziev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$49.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$144
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs Denis Shapovalovbacked Cameron Norrie · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,250Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,250
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.