Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a12068003a55b0b1ac616484a30a073121ea81f82182ecfd6529821d1ff2174
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Silverof Silver, Bitcoin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $169,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 291 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Bitcoin | 0c | 12,219$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…ca2bbacked Bitcoin | 1c | 4,523$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…f6b8backed Bitcoin | 42c | 3,827$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed Bitcoin | 19c | 3,409$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a4…debabacked Bitcoin | 29c | 3,248$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Bitcoin | 41c | 2,813$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.49 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x294d…b362backed Silver | 63c | 2,548$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.24 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +90%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Bitcoin | 28c | 2,500$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.49 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Bitcoin | 20c | 2,329$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.67 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0c…1e5dbacked Silver | 71c | 2,183$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388a…e87cbacked Bitcoin | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…5adabacked Bitcoin | 59c | 1,942$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8802…91d6backed Bitcoin | 10c | 1,915$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…4a49backed Bitcoin | 13c | 1,498$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…ab80backed Silver | 34c | 1,476$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.31 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1256…a2a8backed Silver | 75c | 1,459$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Bitcoin | 52c | 1,400$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Bitcoin | 23c | 1,307$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.48 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16a1…a8cfbacked Silver | 45c | 1,294$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…ee1ebacked Silver | 78c | 1,289$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Bitcoin | 7c | 1,250$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…a200backed Silver | 67c | 1,137$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3c…833ebacked Silver | 75c | 1,127$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…4594backed Bitcoin | 1c | 1,100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Bitcoin | 13c | 1,085$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.81 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Silver | 78c | 1,079$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.77 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Bitcoin | 21c | 1,025$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.62 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…e601backed Silver | 69c | 959.67$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3104…7048backed Bitcoin | 23c | 885.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc0…441dbacked Bitcoin | 15c | 852.23$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed Bitcoin | 63c | 800$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.78 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Silver | 36c | 793.33$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.83 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…394fbacked Bitcoin | 27c | 767.01$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b07…41d0backed Silver | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c7…bef9backed Bitcoin | 6c | 727.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Bitcoin | 24c | 712.14$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.26 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Bitcoin | 2c | 709$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf915…8720backed Bitcoin | 63c | 705.79$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Bitcoin | 3c | 700$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08d3…63a8backed Bitcoin | 65c | 699.98$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed Bitcoin | 12c | 698.13$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06f8…4ecfbacked Bitcoin | 19c | 694$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.63 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +76%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…4febbacked Bitcoin | 15c | 685.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Bitcoin | 8c | 660.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed Silver | 42c | 638.83$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf95d…e957backed Silver | 67c | 633.97$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc20e…0a5ebacked Bitcoin | 10c | 605.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked Silver | 77c | 602.81$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.74 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Bitcoin | 6c | 599.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc95…0b9cbacked Silver | 69c | 587.49$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +97%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Bitcoin | 4c | 580.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…935fbacked Silver | 41c | 579$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.24 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Bitcoin | 37c | 563.59$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.76 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Silver | 76c | 562.02$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed Bitcoin | 25c | 552.56$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…43c9backed Silver | 41c | 536.56$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.56 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a8…efc9backed Bitcoin | 39c | 515.64$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Bitcoin | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…c52bbacked Bitcoin | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Bitcoin | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87af…04fcbacked Silver | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc0…dcd8backed Silver | 78c | 499.99$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 52cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed Bitcoin | 66c | 499.94$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Silver | 70c | 499.82$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.78 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…9c24backed Silver | 68c | 496.04$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bc…1d6cbacked Bitcoin | 12c | 480.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked Bitcoin | 31c | 479.69$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.58 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33cf…d71bbacked Bitcoin | 63c | 472.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…588ebacked Silver | 65c | 450$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3896…ece6backed Silver | 62c | 445.37$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.38 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…cb4abacked Silver | 76c | 393.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…2ffdbacked Bitcoin | 51c | 389.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015f…f1f2backed Silver | 67c | 387.61$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Bitcoin | 16c | 386.65$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Silver | 33c | 358$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.36 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Bitcoin | 27c | 353.4$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92c1…0586backed Bitcoin | 67c | 350.73$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4822…0de4backed Bitcoin | 35c | 350$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Bitcoin | 3c | 344.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x376e…d654backed Silver | 30c | 331.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.71 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…0547backed Silver | 63c | 326.26$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9b…8a91backed Silver | 43c | 324.78$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…74e9backed Bitcoin | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Bitcoin | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…8a67backed Bitcoin | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Bitcoin | 19c | 299.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +130.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Bitcoin | 58c | 299.9$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.01 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…fe12backed Bitcoin | 34c | 297.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e64…66f1backed Silver | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Bitcoin | 24c | 292.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed Bitcoin | 22c | 282.8$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Bitcoin | 21c | 282.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…62f8backed Silver | 34c | 281.15$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.56 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf081…abb6backed Bitcoin | 18c | 272.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b17…6fabbacked Bitcoin | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked Silver | 75c | 266.94$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…489ebacked Silver | 48c | 260.68$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…fadcbacked Silver | 76c | 258.48$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731a…033fbacked Silver | 74c | 256.37$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +995.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99f8…a1afbacked Bitcoin | 24c | 249.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.