TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x376e…d654

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
93
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: World Politics, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 57 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3243.8%14 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$378Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+111.6%+$422
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$655Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+162.4%+$1,063.34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+152.1%+$120.66
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$293Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+289.4%+$846.8
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$292Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+105.5%+$308
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.5
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$370
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Sharjah announces secession from UAE by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$206.99
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$158
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$25.88
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$331Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$330.6
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$75.99
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$19.39
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+180.1%+$257.2
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+67.8%+$80.8
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$81
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$109
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$225.57
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+203%+$268
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$129
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$441Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$441.23
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$78.32
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 1?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.99
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on April 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$146
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 10?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$52
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.89
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$216.32
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$848Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+65.1%+$552.14
Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first?backed Silver · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+231.7%+$231.71
All 13 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+49.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.7
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$21.5
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$10.36
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$35
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.8
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$28.5
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+400%+$56
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.5
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+423.6%+$80.9
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.26
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT1070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+48.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$268Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$132
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$308Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$92
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$106
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.91
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$148
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$90
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$73.46
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$294Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+36.1%+$106
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$108
Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$220.44
All 10 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid+29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+91.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+171.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$279
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$180
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+452.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+452.3%+$311.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddybacked John · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$320.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$136
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.