Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13f3fb5cc17c211f5553f03c1ee6abd2a5a6d6ce3659c7fc16dcc48ce1380dde

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $903,608
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $582,166

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $903,608 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 678 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	13c	33,301$4,333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,333.16	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes	50c	28,401$14,137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,137.28	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	20,929$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.74	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf993…cd9dbacked Yes	1c	17,263$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.5	48	50%24 W · 24 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bae…ae53backed Yes	9c	13,664$1,188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,188.11	36	25%9 W · 27 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	21c	11,338$2,404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,404.12	563	29.8%168 W · 395 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	11c	10,127$1,065 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,065.09	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8b…62fdbacked No	73c	10,117$7,340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,776.93	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+2.4wins	+0.11per pick	60cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	18c	9,044$1,640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,640.28	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	9,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	552	5.6%31 W · 521 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	13c	8,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	19c	7,131$1,329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,329.36	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	20c	6,942$1,418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,418.27	532	22.7%121 W · 411 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	12c	6,767$807 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$807.19	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfafe…2e34backed Yes	18c	6,224$1,116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,116.02	41	29.3%12 W · 29 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	17c	6,165$1,056 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,056.38	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f4f…5394backed Yes	13c	6,061$794 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$793.75	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	20c	5,784$1,155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,154.8	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	12c	5,629$697 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$696.91	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe488…f2c0backed Yes	22c	5,581$1,209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,209.46	73	19.2%14 W · 59 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	21c	5,400$1,124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,123.96	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	29c	5,366$1,580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,580.49	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x65ea…1bbabacked Yes	0c	5,256$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.05	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a70…76b5backed Yes	14c	5,047$726 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$726.16	42	31%13 W · 29 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+124%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No	22c	5,000$1,123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,876.96	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	22c	4,875$1,091 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,090.56	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	17c	4,476$745 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$745.17	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	5c	4,388$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.26	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0d1…4b1cbacked Yes	21c	4,225$878 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$877.56	72	15.3%11 W · 61 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	74c	4,219$3,124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,094.53	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	14c	4,019$579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$578.94	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6b7…227bbacked No	77c	3,817$2,936 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$880.83	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Yes	14c	3,710$526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$526.44	117	25.6%30 W · 87 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30e2…77e1backed No	75c	3,625$2,718 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$907.05	86	30.2%26 W · 60 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	17c	3,531$588 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$588.18	574	20.9%120 W · 454 L	+9.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes	11c	3,482$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.2	40	7.5%3 W · 37 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	15c	3,462$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511.65	879	17.2%151 W · 728 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	7c	3,386$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.16	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	3,337$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.85	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes	15c	3,314$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496.61	105	21.9%23 W · 82 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	21c	3,280$691 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$691.41	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	12c	3,270$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.45	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x302f…a568backed Yes	17c	3,054$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504.1	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+272.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	1c	3,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	15c	2,655$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.72	876	18.4%161 W · 715 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes	22c	2,653$578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$577.58	285	26.7%76 W · 209 L	-11.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	2,600$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.1	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0828…746fbacked No	79c	2,581$2,038 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$542.77	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb087…6658backed Yes	10c	2,522$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.53	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+70.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc194…c49cbacked Yes	11c	2,380$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.99	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	15c	2,315$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.48	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1907…8174backed Yes	13c	2,252$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.65	51	29.4%15 W · 36 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1e07…36a9backed Yes	8c	2,240$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.43	95	11.6%11 W · 84 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	2,224$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.67	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	12c	2,182$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.11	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	16c	2,153$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.75	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes	6c	2,084$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.21	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	+139.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad57…cff9backed Yes	27c	2,073$557 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$556.75	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+54.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes	14c	2,054$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.42	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1626…9992backed Yes	24c	2,014$487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$486.74	114	28.9%33 W · 81 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes	18c	2,005$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.13	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a0…fb89backed Yes	26c	2,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	27	37%10 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes	16c	2,000$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316	62	30.6%19 W · 43 L	+5.2wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes	20c	1,965$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$383.45	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	4c	1,930$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.89	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked No	76c	1,921$1,458 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$462.35	138	44.2%61 W · 77 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	22c	1,912$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.5	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0603…8f62backed No	77c	1,881$1,456 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$424.55	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	19c	1,871$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.78	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes	4c	1,825$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.13	256	17.2%44 W · 212 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	15c	1,743$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.69	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes	5c	1,732$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.69	82	19.5%16 W · 66 L	+3.6wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+34.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb695…a3c8backed Yes	24c	1,732$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.39	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	10c	1,642$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.23	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes	2c	1,630$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	64	29.7%19 W · 45 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes	2c	1,573$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.37	96	27.1%26 W · 70 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	27c	1,532$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.54	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes	21c	1,528$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.26	117	29.1%34 W · 83 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4c8…2be8backed Yes	12c	1,520$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.3	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+21%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	78c	1,515$1,188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$326.86	246	72.8%179 W · 67 L	+15.5wins	+0.06per pick	66cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	13c	1,461$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.31	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No	78c	1,459$1,131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.64	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	9c	1,457$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.82	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	18c	1,420$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.97	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	13c	1,416$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.72	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes	7c	1,361$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.24	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	16c	1,313$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.38	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	79c	1,300$1,032 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$267.5	186	76.9%143 W · 43 L	+11.9wins	+0.06per pick	70cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ed7…60cbbacked No	71c	1,299$919 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$380.56	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes	17c	1,279$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.27	164	27.4%45 W · 119 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	9c	1,249$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.33	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	18c	1,222$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.32	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	20c	1,201$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.4	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	20c	1,192$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.79	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes	22c	1,166$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.6	85	28.2%24 W · 61 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	19c	1,160$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.45	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa1…d9b7backed Yes	32c	1,142$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.74	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ccd…3fdebacked Yes	18c	1,129$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.68	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+114.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event