Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x616bae5bf8b929b53ac297b4116f7b555e925033468aec6314242876c5fd11ba

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $691,136
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $302,819

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $691,136 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe123…e140backed Yes	0c	49,894$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.22	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	29,162$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.96	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	16,915$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.3	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	2c	16,859$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.15	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	14,853$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.71	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes	0c	13,682$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.68	80	2.5%2 W · 78 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-80.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	13,647$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.17	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes	0c	11,741$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	47	0%0 W · 47 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	11,686$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.69	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	0c	8,170$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.15	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	6,064$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.29	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	0c	5,797$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.63	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	5,370$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.56	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes	2c	5,114$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.87	133	15.8%21 W · 112 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	4,698$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.06	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	4,153$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.9	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	4,039$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.58	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	1c	4,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	3,950$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.98	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	3,874$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.24	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	1c	3,790$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.7	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes	2c	3,741$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.65	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	3,603$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.85	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	3,482$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.17	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	3c	3,257$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.94	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc194…c49cbacked Yes	2c	3,253$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.01	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	3,055$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.12	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes	5c	3,031$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.62	40	7.5%3 W · 37 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	0c	3,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	1c	2,583$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.32	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	6c	2,512$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.87	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4954…ac42backed Yes	1c	2,458$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.29	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	21cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdac…06fabacked Yes	1c	2,239$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.2	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes	1c	2,221$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.46	72	15.3%11 W · 61 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	3c	2,173$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.56	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d50…c26bbacked Yes	1c	2,065$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.27	114	16.7%19 W · 95 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	1c	2,042$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.97	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	2,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,934$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x63ac…1cf1backed Yes	1c	1,793$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.41	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70f1…d1bfbacked Yes	1c	1,791$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.01	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	1,771$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.41	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed Yes	5c	1,534$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.96	130	31.5%41 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb845…a589backed Yes	6c	1,532$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.59	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	3c	1,525$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.37	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94fb…e5eabacked Yes	1c	1,508$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.78	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	1,503$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.73	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32eb…f531backed Yes	1c	1,255$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	14cpaid	+104.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9f2…4737backed Yes	5c	1,249$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.09	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3fc…a1d9backed Yes	1c	900$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	35	0%0 W · 35 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b26…c272backed Yes	3c	856.44$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.9	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	821.21$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.05	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	795.86$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.09	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0759…a93dbacked Yes	6c	793.84$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.29	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	+3.7wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8914…36d5backed Yes	6c	677.65$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.76	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1efe…ac77backed Yes	5c	640$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.08	99	10.1%10 W · 89 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	614.34$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.06	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8737…8938backed Yes	3c	595.13$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.93	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b83…be04backed Yes	3c	584.98$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.08	38	13.2%5 W · 33 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	572.02$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.51	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdce6…6069backed Yes	3c	495.87$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.37	69	18.8%13 W · 56 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes	5c	458.29$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.94	121	6.6%8 W · 113 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	5c	450.85$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.64	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd9…86cabacked Yes	6c	302.26$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.12	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	6c	300.75$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.94	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c80…9564backed Yes	6c	297.06$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.12	179	20.7%37 W · 142 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb0…a422backed Yes	6c	287.11$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.58	168	14.9%25 W · 143 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed Yes	5c	273.24$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.57	167	41.3%69 W · 98 L	-5.6wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9df…d830backed Yes	6c	198.6$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.81	160	17.5%28 W · 132 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49a5…a67cbacked Yes	7c	190.27$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.7	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e57…9700backed Yes	6c	181.82$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e43…b356backed Yes	8c	136.17$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.59	178	18.5%33 W · 145 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event