TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$632,016
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$295,554

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $632,016 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x95a9…baf2backed Yes0c27,903$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70be…044dbacked Yes0c27,349$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.467912.7%10 W · 69 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff3…7737backed Yes0c24,570$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.19100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x302f…a568backed Yes0c16,916$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.512512%3 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+272.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c16,720$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.343281.2%4 W · 324 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ff…b465backed Yes0c16,516$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.71333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid-23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8da2…ab27backed Yes0c15,214$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc9…17acbacked Yes0c14,717$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.812611.5%3 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes0c14,123$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.656410.9%7 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c12,572$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.571290.8%1 W · 128 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+675.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes0c11,444$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.44470%0 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf75f…0988backed Yes0c10,500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa43…d992backed Yes0c9,520$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.111348.2%11 W · 123 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes4c9,112$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.6451410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7312…a168backed Yes0c7,818$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.02731.4%1 W · 72 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-91.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes5c4,564$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.221148.8%10 W · 104 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c4,449$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.961,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes0c4,201$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.761196.7%8 W · 111 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-76.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes7c4,150$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.811478.8%13 W · 134 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-37.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd67b…0b26backed Yes1c3,861$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f23…37c5backed Yes0c3,827$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes6c3,343$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.6657621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd83c…34f6backed Yes6c3,024$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.272313%3 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes2c3,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602466.1%15 W · 231 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes0c2,991$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.411308.5%11 W · 119 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes7c2,938$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.6788018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes2c2,849$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9278111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes6c2,806$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.2717631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes1c2,744$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.62116.6%14 W · 197 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes6c2,736$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.3663821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes2c2,526$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.535535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e07…36a9backed Yes1c2,264$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.429511.6%11 W · 84 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes6c2,119$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.181,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes7c1,826$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.3688017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37bd…afd5backed Yes6c1,631$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.56917.4%12 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc194…c49cbacked Yes2c1,579$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.24837.2%6 W · 77 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes3c1,480$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6288610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes5c1,427$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.561,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d1a…837ebacked Yes6c1,357$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.441010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-76.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes1c1,239$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.445598.2%46 W · 513 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes2c1,210$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.351,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes6c1,142$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.721816.1%35 W · 183 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes3c1,129$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.732338.2%19 W · 214 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e9e…7883backed Yes5c999.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507010%7 W · 63 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick9cpaid+34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes1c991.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52688.8%6 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes7c945.96$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2126619.5%52 W · 214 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa263…5dbabacked Yes6c754.7$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes4c699.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.982714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes4c633.77$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0530110.3%31 W · 270 L+0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes7c623.08$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.369714.4%14 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes3c600.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.936113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes5c555.61$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1723314.2%33 W · 200 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes6c478.41$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.052777.9%22 W · 255 L+0.6wins0.00per pick8cpaid+35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf096…28a8backed Yes7c453.5$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7510530.5%32 W · 73 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick29cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc489…e4b6backed Yes6c453$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3329…2f5cbacked Yes5c452.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.631020%2 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+209.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes5c407.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7929610.5%31 W · 265 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes7c404.27$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6438828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc14f…0ee1backed Yes5c393.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8416013.8%22 W · 138 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf2…f130backed Yes7c388.71$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.213324.2%8 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c06…fbadbacked Yes6c384.62$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.084216.7%7 W · 35 L+0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0603…8f62backed Yes20c315.78$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.162133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-44.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf263…9ef4backed Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x543e…9498backed Yes8c298.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe659…7cb3backed Yes6c288.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.131915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-62.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71f…15afbacked Yes6c280.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.13922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid+35.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97ec…0708backed Yes7c245.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.35320.8%11 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedb6…b279backed Yes6c226.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.592330.4%7 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+251.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7072…69acbacked Yes7c207.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a40…599ebacked Yes7c204.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61428.5%12 W · 130 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e57…9700backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5991…6340backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124623.9%11 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+24.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42bf…ed71backed Yes6c168.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.95425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+73.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0472…fc04backed Yes6c159.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.43823.7%9 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f5…f796backed Yes8c151.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.199412.8%12 W · 82 L+0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.