Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x196b3ef8453f248e90ea0dd8075a19b54eabc986fb052987ce230151ad118a40

Rebuilt 36 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $205,766
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $51,415

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,766 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf6f5…512fbacked Yes	0c	26,967$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	8,765$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.34	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	2c	4,833$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.27	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	5c	3,922$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.16	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	3,659$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.37	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d50…c26bbacked Yes	2c	3,150$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.23	114	16.7%19 W · 95 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	1c	3,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	2,854$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.87	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	2,694$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.25	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	1c	2,247$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.1	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	2c	2,179$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.63	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4261…8d5bbacked Yes	2c	1,825$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.12	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+3.5wins	+0.19per pick	14cpaid	+153.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	1,769$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.04	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	2c	1,541$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.17	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	2c	1,529$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.29	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d1a…837ebacked Yes	2c	1,496$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.43	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-76.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,442$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	3c	1,412$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.16	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73ec…4735backed Yes	2c	1,318$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.01	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	2c	1,143$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.16	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc194…c49cbacked Yes	1c	1,138$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.64	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	1c	1,079$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.87	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	999.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	2c	990.82$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.63	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	2c	901.9$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.09	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes	2c	901.7$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.32	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes	2c	839.31$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.36	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	1c	781.72$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.94	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	2c	737.06$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	657.27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.94	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	2c	599$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	2c	542.65$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.63	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f5…f796backed Yes	2c	525.3$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.08	94	12.8%12 W · 82 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc7…64efbacked Yes	2c	493.74$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ba7…8ca5backed Yes	5c	196.08$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event