Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bc60b5efb534da28687c0921b1ed968c08ae73fba2b3056bbc343f9c6276766

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $441,924
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $171,540

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $441,924 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	8,971$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.25	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	8,854$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.3	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa43…d992backed Yes	0c	8,732$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.46	134	8.2%11 W · 123 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	8,481$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.62	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes	1c	7,601$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.31	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x302f…a568backed Yes	1c	6,240$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.04	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+272.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32eb…f531backed Yes	0c	5,513$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.85	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	14cpaid	+104.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	0c	5,283$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.28	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes	2c	5,077$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.62	133	15.8%21 W · 112 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes	4c	4,236$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.73	40	7.5%3 W · 37 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	4,126$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.32	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	1c	4,000$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	3c	3,366$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.89	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	0c	3,361$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	1c	3,129$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.66	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	5c	3,124$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.19	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	2c	2,874$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.03	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	1c	2,710$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.29	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	1c	2,700$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	2,481$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.14	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	2,455$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.1	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc194…c49cbacked Yes	2c	2,395$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.16	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	4c	2,228$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.44	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	2,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	1,966$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.35	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	1,905$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.56	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	1c	1,788$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.21	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94fb…e5eabacked Yes	1c	1,721$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.86	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	1,478$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.02	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9f2…4737backed Yes	2c	1,248$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.34	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e7…06c1backed Yes	3c	1,058$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.14	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-88.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes	5c	978.99$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.41	102	16.7%17 W · 85 L	+6.7wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	2c	832.03$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.08	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	3c	684.21$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.05	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1efe…ac77backed Yes	5c	500$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	99	10.1%10 W · 89 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb0…a422backed Yes	5c	491.05$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.89	168	14.9%25 W · 143 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	4c	403.59$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.83	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	6c	393.16$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.41	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	5c	357.09$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.29	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe73c…dd15backed Yes	5c	240.06$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.69	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49a5…a67cbacked Yes	5c	190.06$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event