Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb728ebff8d9a902371c5980dba5b209ccd7b3e2f8214df06871914c385701884

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $487,758
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $185,380

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $487,758 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes	1c	11,065$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.87	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	10,706$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.71	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c6…c53abacked Yes	0c	10,540$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.21	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	10,049$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.63	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	9,037$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.69	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf782…b42ebacked Yes	0c	8,277$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.01	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32eb…f531backed Yes	0c	7,985$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.85	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	14cpaid	+104.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	7,611$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.89	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe123…e140backed Yes	1c	6,378$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.55	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	4,579$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.64	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	3c	4,407$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.13	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	5c	3,887$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.02	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	3,564$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.26	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	3c	3,300$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.29	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	2,927$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.54	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes	2c	2,898$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.9	133	15.8%21 W · 112 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	1c	2,841$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.41	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	1c	2,702$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.99	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94fb…e5eabacked Yes	0c	2,652$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.94	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc194…c49cbacked Yes	2c	2,576$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.67	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	1c	2,347$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.68	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	1c	2,337$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.73	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	2,191$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.44	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes	4c	2,054$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.44	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	+5.3wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	1,336$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.83	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b26…c272backed Yes	2c	1,328$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.58	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8737…8938backed Yes	2c	1,075$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.55	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f2…4737backed Yes	1c	1,048$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.63	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b83…be04backed Yes	2c	921.72$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.69	38	13.2%5 W · 33 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	4c	803.23$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.13	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	562.76$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes	4c	545.6$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	108	40.7%44 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb0…a422backed Yes	2c	539.05$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.01	168	14.9%25 W · 143 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	3c	448.01$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8618…4b99backed Yes	4c	263.75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	5cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event