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Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$826,552
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$503,193

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $826,552 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 330 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x70be…044dbacked Yes1c18,519$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.627912.7%10 W · 69 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa43…d992backed Yes1c12,929$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.721348.2%11 W · 123 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes0c12,483$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.696410.9%7 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes1c11,760$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0136113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes5c11,214$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.3563414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfafe…2e34backed Yes23c11,209$2,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,525.574129.3%12 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes0c9,917$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7513315.8%21 W · 112 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8785…df3fbacked Yes1c9,397$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.85450%2 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick2cpaid+1,188.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes1c9,247$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9648310.1%49 W · 434 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c8,953$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.871,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2df…3b97backed Yes1c8,184$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.73156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-79.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66f0…ac16backed Yes31c7,402$2,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,328.884226.2%11 W · 31 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df5…1267backed Yes1c6,959$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.861421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+203.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes6c6,498$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.3229113.1%38 W · 253 L-0.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc194…c49cbacked Yes4c6,463$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.41837.2%6 W · 77 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7579…94c6backed No76c6,447$4,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,557.221675%12 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c6,436$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.741,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes0c6,285$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.155628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50b5…4048backed Yes0c6,231$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes2c6,081$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.111,8097.4%133 W · 1,676 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c5,865$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.435775.5%32 W · 545 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+37.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe292…a52abacked Yes1c5,844$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0380%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes1c5,731$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.393616.7%6 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c5,685$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.411873.2%6 W · 181 L-0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid+278.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe645…fbdebacked Yes7c5,655$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.832231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x302f…a568backed Yes1c5,397$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.22512%3 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+272.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes1c4,986$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.367211.1%8 W · 64 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes2c4,785$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.431894.2%8 W · 181 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc9…17acbacked Yes1c4,642$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.332611.5%3 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdff3…7737backed Yes6c4,566$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.5100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes1c4,551$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4224114.1%34 W · 207 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe123…e140backed Yes0c4,502$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.01277.4%2 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes6c4,346$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.6978111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes2c4,274$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.032116.6%14 W · 197 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdac…06fabacked Yes2c4,234$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8378.1%3 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bae…ae53backed Yes14c3,877$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.013625%9 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes1c3,208$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.275748.2%47 W · 527 L+12.9wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1be…9662backed Yes0c3,151$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61160%0 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6749…ef34backed Yes27c3,068$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.34933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+96.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32eb…f531backed Yes1c3,061$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.61526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+104.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes5c2,996$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1811729.1%34 W · 83 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes2c2,941$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.87407.5%3 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes20c2,866$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.772466.1%15 W · 231 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No74c2,822$2,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.8855675.2%418 W · 138 L+35.4wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes1c2,637$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0453410.5%56 W · 478 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes8c2,580$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.2414015.7%22 W · 118 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c45…4503backed Yes18c2,528$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.941435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+61.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes1c2,481$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5759311.5%68 W · 525 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe488…f2c0backed Yes19c2,391$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.617319.2%14 W · 59 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb313…1ce7backed Yes27c2,386$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.521717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid+2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes6c2,381$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.635909.2%54 W · 536 L+1.6wins0.00per pick9cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes1c2,262$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.223644.7%17 W · 347 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+98.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdce6…6069backed Yes1c2,177$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.436918.8%13 W · 56 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3a5…1e04backed Yes1c2,166$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2880%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes15c2,063$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.461478.8%13 W · 134 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-37.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes15c2,030$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.591110.2%93 W · 818 L-3.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204806.9%33 W · 447 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad57…cff9backed Yes7c1,938$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.051816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+54.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc8…9e87backed Yes6c1,916$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.783218.8%6 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+90.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69cc…0d7dbacked Yes1c1,905$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.964032.5%13 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+103%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes30c1,860$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.981609.4%15 W · 145 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-34.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes2c1,845$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.091196.7%8 W · 111 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-76.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes1c1,831$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.031308.5%11 W · 119 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes1c1,823$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.11837.2%6 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x776d…a16bbacked Yes5c1,801$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.51520%3 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+136.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37bd…afd5backed Yes19c1,721$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.136917.4%12 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes3c1,706$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.13688.8%6 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes21c1,647$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.531,04111%115 W · 926 L+4.5wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes5c1,607$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1730427%82 W · 222 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes1c1,604$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.753134.8%15 W · 298 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes1c1,600$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.091,2198.7%106 W · 1,113 L+32.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cdd…dacebacked Yes20c1,588$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.673826.3%10 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes6c1,580$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.952777.9%22 W · 255 L+0.6wins0.00per pick8cpaid+35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes6c1,575$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.821,07213.6%146 W · 926 L+38.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf06d…26f7backed Yes5c1,533$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6611011.8%13 W · 97 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7312…a168backed Yes5c1,523$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.56731.4%1 W · 72 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-91.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes7c1,505$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5550913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes1c1,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011111.7%13 W · 98 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+93.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb603…58febacked Yes1c1,479$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.723928.2%11 W · 28 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes2c1,460$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.112225.9%13 W · 209 L-0.2wins0.00per pick6cpaid-41.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed No79c1,386$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.26381%51 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick75cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes5c1,305$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3883714.9%125 W · 712 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No79c1,300$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27218877.1%145 W · 43 L+12.3wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes10c1,295$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.5459320.9%124 W · 469 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0603…8f62backed Yes17c1,277$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.972133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-44.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes10c1,272$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.5289818.8%169 W · 729 L+11.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes3c1,266$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6238614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7045…0494backed Yes2c1,196$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0910128.7%29 W · 72 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes6c1,178$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9819726.9%53 W · 144 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ccd…3fdebacked Yes16c1,146$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.2520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+114.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a21…7789backed Yes21c1,124$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.831233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes12c1,095$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6890317.1%154 W · 749 L+0.7wins0.00per pick17cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes3c1,086$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.634221.9%75 W · 267 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes18c1,036$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.315418.5%10 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0431…fcb4backed Yes2c1,032$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61250%0 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bc7…867bbacked Yes2c1,026$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.236113.1%8 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes3c1,013$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6138010%38 W · 342 L+0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa932…79a6backed Yes2c1,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19712.8%2 W · 69 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-47.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes5c1,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4932110%32 W · 289 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes19c985.96$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.339714.4%14 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.