TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xde0f…57c1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
240
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Tweets, grading 50 out of 100 (0.00 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 50 out of 100; worst Champions League at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT2166%13 W · 203 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 216 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.67
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.77
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.31
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.82
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.22
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.54
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.5
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.69
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.3
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.4
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.34
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.69
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.97
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.71
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.56
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.64
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.4
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.04
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.6
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.55
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.63
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.42
Showing 25 of 216 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.11
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Portugal win the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.44
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
All 9 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 2-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.