TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 2-8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$392,362

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $392,362 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93ab…9723backed Yes27c32,123$8,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,778.5750%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes2c15,160$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.219535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9980…6674backed Yes0c10,190$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d16…e798backed Yes1c6,256$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4180%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes1c5,867$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5437745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc81…be46backed Yes0c5,014$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No76c4,971$3,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.3958126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x483e…4a9cbacked No14c4,480$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,861.561020%2 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick9cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c4,433$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.88185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-61.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes5c4,197$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.89786.4%5 W · 73 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2a…65afbacked Yes1c4,011$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6368…172fbacked Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3520…1fa0backed Yes30c3,314$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d1…a4cebacked No19c3,250$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,642.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+435%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa09e…adc9backed No19c3,250$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,642.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+292.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0598…9fcdbacked No19c3,250$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,642.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+435%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6294…33f3backed No75c3,110$2,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.396657.6%38 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes8c3,000$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.912825%7 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+270.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes8c2,985$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.7287828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c2,773$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.816785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes3c2,687$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.911422.1%3 W · 139 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4a0…22eebacked No13c2,550$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,209.51241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick18cpaid+74.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes4c2,468$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.96723.9%16 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+111.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3cd…e864backed No19c2,200$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7882100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+292%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c2,186$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.451970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dd8…858ebacked Yes6c2,000$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes2c2,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33541.9%1 W · 53 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-69.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,800$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.382417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes6c1,607$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.143998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe516…14ffbacked Yes3c1,591$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,589$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.41,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b21…5f56backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes7c1,018$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.744411.4%5 W · 39 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-39.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…3469backed Yes4c1,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4861.2%1 W · 85 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-87.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes2c950$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.72581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1a2…4bc9backed Yes27c938$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.27616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes5c934.09$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.232010%2 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f7f…2352backed No75c793.11$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.65726.3%15 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0070…0414backed No79c750.96$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.594654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13bf…544ebacked Yes3c713.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c5d…18c7backed No17c700$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+99.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42e2…8686backed No17c700$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5832100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+324.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc0c…ae76backed Yes16c663.3$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba10…b244backed Yes15c662.16$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Yes28c642.3$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.6950%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Yes4c565.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204341.9%18 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7585…57a5backed Yes19c539.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5639…7246backed Yes8c538.04$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0180%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes4c522.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes2c499.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.22683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b09…015cbacked Yes15c496.18$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.425016%8 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes3c454.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8840643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…f384backed Yes22c410.96$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1968…0088backed Yes10c407.88$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.38425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+108.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41da…f8e8backed Yes14c348.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503910.3%4 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c41…57a6backed Yes28c344.04$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.51825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca68…bd3abacked Yes8c326.83$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd0…82e0backed Yes26c308.94$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x083c…f78cbacked Yes5c302.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.23270%0 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No70c300$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9013770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1908…ecd3backed Yes4c296$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.211020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-50.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2640…32bdbacked Yes18c282.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes9c271.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7231523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes8c263.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2482…a721backed Yes18c218.32$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.75650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb60e…3574backed No52c200$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.84658.7%27 W · 19 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+35.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Yes26c195.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes23c175.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba0b…7132backed Yes17c158.93$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.32540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb6…8de2backed Yes25c156.57$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4650%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e66…e1b2backed Yes21c151.2$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.11428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93f1…b99dbacked Yes25c146.05$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd050…be7abacked Yes21c136.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.719940.4%40 W · 59 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ba9…adfbbacked Yes25c130$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.54250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Yes26c128.54$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.79130%0 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed Yes34c124.57$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.713050%15 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56b9…1853backed Yes16c122.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70dd…a4e3backed Yes18c114.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.48425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+506.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcdb…02c3backed Yes31c103.12$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaa4…2229backed Yes14c101.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ec8…a541backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1247…9ce9backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.84062.5%25 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cca…da53backed Yes24c82.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9094…dcabbacked Yes27c77.95$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.28425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e93…0078backed Yes16c77.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.832218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-62.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e7b…bcbcbacked Yes27c74.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac25…9523backed Yes23c68.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4730%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ba3…811dbacked No75c67.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d98…a392backed Yes20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2874…4736backed Yes34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d66…af0dbacked Yes19c58.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd42…878dbacked No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ac6…66b2backed No77c49.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.552055%11 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a67…0b8abacked No77c42$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.465100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b11…6dfdbacked Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd31c…4730backed Yes34c35.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc770…d7d8backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.05475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb252…923fbacked No77c18.16$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d79…b410backed No73c17.11$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.