Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c34ad3f5e0fafc2b6b28ccb7568cc31b829185dd6912f40576199041fbb4e85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $392,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $392,362 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Yes | 27c | 32,123$8,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,778.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 2c | 15,160$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.2 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9980…6674backed Yes | 0c | 10,190$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 1c | 6,256$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.41 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 1c | 5,867$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…be46backed Yes | 0c | 5,014$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 76c | 4,971$3,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.39 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483e…4a9cbacked No | 14c | 4,480$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,861.56 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 4,433$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes | 5c | 4,197$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.89 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2a…65afbacked Yes | 1c | 4,011$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…172fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…1fa0backed Yes | 30c | 3,314$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…a4cebacked No | 19c | 3,250$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,642.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +435%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09e…adc9backed No | 19c | 3,250$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,642.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +292.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0598…9fcdbacked No | 19c | 3,250$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,642.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +435%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6294…33f3backed No | 75c | 3,110$2,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.39 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.91 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +270.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 8c | 2,985$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.72 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,773$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.81 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,687$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a0…22eebacked No | 13c | 2,550$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,209.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 18cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,468$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.9 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cd…e864backed No | 19c | 2,200$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +292%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 2,186$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 6c | 1,607$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe516…14ffbacked Yes | 3c | 1,591$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,589$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b21…5f56backed Yes | 1c | 1,533$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 7c | 1,018$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 2c | 950$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a2…4bc9backed Yes | 27c | 938$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 5c | 934.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7f…2352backed No | 75c | 793.11$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.6 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…0414backed No | 79c | 750.96$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.59 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13bf…544ebacked Yes | 3c | 713.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5d…18c7backed No | 17c | 700$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…8686backed No | 17c | 700$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +324.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0c…ae76backed Yes | 16c | 663.3$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba10…b244backed Yes | 15c | 662.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabde…d41fbacked Yes | 28c | 642.3$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Yes | 4c | 565.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7585…57a5backed Yes | 19c | 539.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5639…7246backed Yes | 8c | 538.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 4c | 522.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 2c | 499.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…015cbacked Yes | 15c | 496.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 3c | 454.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…f384backed Yes | 22c | 410.96$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…0088backed Yes | 10c | 407.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…f8e8backed Yes | 14c | 348.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…57a6backed Yes | 28c | 344.04$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca68…bd3abacked Yes | 8c | 326.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…82e0backed Yes | 26c | 308.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…f78cbacked Yes | 5c | 302.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1908…ecd3backed Yes | 4c | 296$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2640…32bdbacked Yes | 18c | 282.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 271.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 8c | 263.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…a721backed Yes | 18c | 218.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…3574backed No | 52c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Yes | 26c | 195.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 23c | 175.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…7132backed Yes | 17c | 158.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…8de2backed Yes | 25c | 156.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e66…e1b2backed Yes | 21c | 151.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f1…b99dbacked Yes | 25c | 146.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked Yes | 21c | 136.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba9…adfbbacked Yes | 25c | 130$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Yes | 26c | 128.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 34c | 124.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b9…1853backed Yes | 16c | 122.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70dd…a4e3backed Yes | 18c | 114.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +506.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdb…02c3backed Yes | 31c | 103.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa4…2229backed Yes | 14c | 101.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…a541backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…9ce9backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cca…da53backed Yes | 24c | 82.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9094…dcabbacked Yes | 27c | 77.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e93…0078backed Yes | 16c | 77.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7b…bcbcbacked Yes | 27c | 74.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…9523backed Yes | 23c | 68.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba3…811dbacked No | 75c | 67.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d98…a392backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2874…4736backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…af0dbacked Yes | 19c | 58.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd42…878dbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…66b2backed No | 77c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…0b8abacked No | 77c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b11…6dfdbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…4730backed Yes | 34c | 35.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…d7d8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…923fbacked No | 77c | 18.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d79…b410backed No | 73c | 17.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 2-8?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.