TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 2-8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$650,756

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $650,756 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde17…0988backed Yes8c75,529$5,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,867.853056.7%17 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes10c32,151$3,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,242.77130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes1c27,000$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.51185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+144.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes3c18,945$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.1528021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe18a…18e5backed Yes12c16,458$2,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,026.691822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+298.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes5c16,263$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.16320%0 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes15c15,849$2,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,415.1387828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No73c15,567$11,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,130.824050%20 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes14c14,130$1,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,991.7514019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb835…683bbacked Yes14c13,000$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,829.9140%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes13c10,500$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.6258126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d9…5ababacked Yes10c9,910$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Yes9c9,536$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.342718.5%5 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes8c7,716$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.831422.1%3 W · 139 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad1f…6c61backed Yes18c6,901$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.8912129.8%36 W · 85 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+142.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c6,503$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.63940%0 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f0…6718backed No75c6,090$4,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,492.18850%4 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-29%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes10c4,777$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.56518.5%12 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes13c4,380$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.893836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe626…6771backed Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202839.3%11 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick29cpaid-8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf274…37f4backed Yes12c3,876$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.795612.5%7 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+48.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5a…7c39backed Yes13c3,847$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x82cf…bc82backed Yes14c3,687$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.49110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes9c3,452$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.793998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b09…015cbacked Yes14c3,375$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.165016%8 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bdc…e1dcbacked Yes14c3,247$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c3,236$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.426785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c35…feebbacked Yes7c3,170$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.8270%0 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd78c…3469backed Yes7c3,155$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.63861.2%1 W · 85 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-87.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes8c2,993$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.682581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa26…e1e2backed Yes12c2,647$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3101010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes10c2,642$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601855.6%10 W · 8 L+7.2wins+0.40per pick15cpaid+556.8%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes10c2,501$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240786.4%5 W · 73 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes12c2,271$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2664411.4%5 W · 39 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-39.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes1c2,100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c9…65febacked Yes6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes13c2,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2609427.7%26 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa996…99dabacked Yes6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202913.8%4 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dd8…858ebacked Yes4c2,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d8d…b8f8backed Yes7c2,000$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14270%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9249…cc75backed Yes8c1,897$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.341118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…f384backed Yes8c1,875$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1955…9865backed Yes14c1,797$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-70.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4aa…a78bbacked Yes10c1,778$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7618…4e00backed Yes8c1,601$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes8c1,503$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.552683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes38c1,400$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5363438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdb7…75f2backed No76c1,336$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3211172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes8c1,313$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001379.5%13 W · 124 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f7f…2352backed Yes13c1,294$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.445726.3%15 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec68…a36fbacked Yes24c1,290$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.843520%7 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes13c1,279$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.4340643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1c6…3ec2backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes5c1,245$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4211533%38 W · 77 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca68…bd3abacked Yes12c1,226$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.06137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6953…3be6backed Yes9c1,176$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d74…596bbacked Yes7c1,126$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80263.8%1 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-92.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ede…e0e8backed Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+65.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2cb…6dc2backed Yes15c1,002$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148120%0 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b39…c1aabacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11023411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf54c…e6ccbacked Yes10c999.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-69.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa220…4c66backed Yes6c999.97$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1a2…4bc9backed Yes31c998$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.1616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x557d…c29dbacked Yes11c893.56$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.18633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd93d…500cbacked Yes17c873.28$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9123…9dd3backed Yes6c833.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes24c832.14$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1991288.6%11 W · 117 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77a6…4387backed Yes5c757.69$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-80.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x570c…e727backed Yes14c750$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c64…cb26backed Yes7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3822…b720backed Yes7c700$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528634.9%30 W · 56 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes39c645.55$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.2714340.6%58 W · 85 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04f0…50f9backed Yes8c637.48$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa94…d32fbacked Yes5c614.7$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes20c602.5$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.3934848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59e1…431dbacked Yes28c600$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1661315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-51.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes6c582.67$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.38140%0 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x606f…7586backed Yes5c558.59$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdd0…855cbacked Yes11c538.61$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x88df…a457backed Yes33c521$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.143330.3%10 W · 23 L-5.3wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-48.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x32a3…a818backed Yes9c513.12$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.53119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick27cpaid-84.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes8c508.87$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0531523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x134d…1da2backed Yes59c508.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005164.7%33 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2165…8075backed Yes53c500$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2664671.7%33 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+15.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa244…8e63backed Yes10c445.45$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45229.1%2 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick22cpaid-64.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed No69c436.29$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.0910067%67 W · 33 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8097…255fbacked Yes17c431.64$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-78.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dda…6ec7backed Yes69c415.23$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.513030%9 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb22b…b3c3backed Yes8c400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-51.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf143…c090backed Yes13c384.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid+204.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4114…b07abacked Yes16c384.52$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fbc…b858backed Yes53c377$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8150%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6357…cbe5backed Yes8c375$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes11c353.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4013624.3%33 W · 103 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9e74…6d51backed Yes30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100130%0 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x87f4…9ed0backed No65c332.93$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.963531.4%11 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-51.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeace…5d17backed No75c326.66$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.711764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.