Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c9e709b7ee4a17ae5d08eaca6811e131047e193a82649739d4d35b2b3d0f0f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $650,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $650,756 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde17…0988backed Yes | 8c | 75,529$5,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,867.85 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 10c | 32,151$3,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,242.77 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 1c | 27,000$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.51 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +144.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 3c | 18,945$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.15 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…18e5backed Yes | 12c | 16,458$2,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,026.69 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +298.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes | 5c | 16,263$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.16 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 15c | 15,849$2,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,415.13 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed No | 73c | 15,567$11,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,130.82 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 14c | 14,130$1,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.75 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…683bbacked Yes | 14c | 13,000$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,829.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 13c | 10,500$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.62 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…5ababacked Yes | 10c | 9,910$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Yes | 9c | 9,536$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.34 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 8c | 7,716$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.83 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 18c | 6,901$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.89 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 6,503$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…6718backed No | 75c | 6,090$4,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes | 10c | 4,777$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.5 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 13c | 4,380$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.89 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…6771backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…37f4backed Yes | 12c | 3,876$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.79 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5a…7c39backed Yes | 13c | 3,847$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…bc82backed Yes | 14c | 3,687$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.49 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 9c | 3,452$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.79 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…015cbacked Yes | 14c | 3,375$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.16 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdc…e1dcbacked Yes | 14c | 3,247$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 3,236$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.42 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked Yes | 7c | 3,170$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.8 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 7c | 3,155$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.63 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 8c | 2,993$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.68 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…e1e2backed Yes | 12c | 2,647$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 10c | 2,642$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +7.2wins | +0.40per pick | 15cpaid | +556.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes | 10c | 2,501$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 12c | 2,271$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…65febacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…99dabacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…b8f8backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…cc75backed Yes | 8c | 1,897$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.34 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…f384backed Yes | 8c | 1,875$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…9865backed Yes | 14c | 1,797$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4aa…a78bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,778$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7618…4e00backed Yes | 8c | 1,601$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 8c | 1,503$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.55 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 38c | 1,400$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed No | 76c | 1,336$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 8c | 1,313$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7f…2352backed Yes | 13c | 1,294$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.44 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec68…a36fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,290$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.84 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 13c | 1,279$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.43 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…3ec2backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 1,245$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca68…bd3abacked Yes | 12c | 1,226$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.06 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6953…3be6backed Yes | 9c | 1,176$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d74…596bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,126$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ede…e0e8backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…6dc2backed Yes | 15c | 1,002$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b39…c1aabacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…e6ccbacked Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa220…4c66backed Yes | 6c | 999.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a2…4bc9backed Yes | 31c | 998$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557d…c29dbacked Yes | 11c | 893.56$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…500cbacked Yes | 17c | 873.28$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9123…9dd3backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 24c | 832.14$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77a6…4387backed Yes | 5c | 757.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…e727backed Yes | 14c | 750$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…cb26backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…b720backed Yes | 7c | 700$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 39c | 645.55$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.27 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f0…50f9backed Yes | 8c | 637.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa94…d32fbacked Yes | 5c | 614.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 20c | 602.5$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.39 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e1…431dbacked Yes | 28c | 600$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 6c | 582.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…7586backed Yes | 5c | 558.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd0…855cbacked Yes | 11c | 538.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88df…a457backed Yes | 33c | 521$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.14 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32a3…a818backed Yes | 9c | 513.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 508.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134d…1da2backed Yes | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…8075backed Yes | 53c | 500$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed Yes | 10c | 445.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 69c | 436.29$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.09 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…255fbacked Yes | 17c | 431.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dda…6ec7backed Yes | 69c | 415.23$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.51 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb22b…b3c3backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…c090backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +204.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b07abacked Yes | 16c | 384.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…b858backed Yes | 53c | 377$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6357…cbe5backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 11c | 353.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e74…6d51backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed No | 65c | 332.93$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.96 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeace…5d17backed No | 75c | 326.66$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.71 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 2-8?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.