Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe46e08b5b0f544dd50f5a99ffdf6825d070f1b6f4943c8b340fbe8eaeeea8fba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $470,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $470,320 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 4c | 53,963$2,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,124.39 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Yes | 13c | 30,666$3,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,917.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…b675backed Yes | 11c | 14,366$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba3…6055backed Yes | 3c | 13,375$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.38 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…232cbacked Yes | 4c | 11,241$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc46…37a4backed Yes | 0c | 7,001$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 4c | 6,500$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.52 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +270.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 3c | 6,392$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.27 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 6,371$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.73 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd1…9bd7backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9c…7e44backed Yes | 1c | 4,902$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 12c | 4,685$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.91 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 4,486$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.04 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 1c | 4,424$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 1c | 3,431$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,228$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 4c | 3,204$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.42 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…5cc2backed Yes | 12c | 2,940$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 3c | 2,832$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0c…ae76backed Yes | 8c | 2,652$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe516…14ffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,508$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 2,260$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32bc…1dabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,237$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 7c | 1,885$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.16 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,856$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,668$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 2c | 1,650$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88d2…2421backed Yes | 2c | 1,494$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b2…4951backed Yes | 13c | 1,180$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…57d1backed Yes | 3c | 1,177$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…5d72backed Yes | 2c | 1,010$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 996.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 6c | 962.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0060…17f6backed Yes | 14c | 956.92$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…f384backed Yes | 11c | 892.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…7bd2backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeee…352abacked Yes | 17c | 584.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…c312backed Yes | 2c | 522$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68d…ec13backed Yes | 8c | 480.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabde…d41fbacked Yes | 14c | 457.39$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x569e…fdabbacked Yes | 5c | 440.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d74…596bbacked Yes | 9c | 422.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 14c | 410$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 397.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a3…a818backed Yes | 4c | 369.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…f78cbacked Yes | 5c | 363.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc0…ea47backed Yes | 11c | 351.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x625e…76e3backed Yes | 3c | 341.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0822…82efbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…f8e8backed Yes | 9c | 248.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed Yes | 5c | 233$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb578…0ddcbacked Yes | 12c | 222.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 211.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Yes | 12c | 206.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked Yes | 12c | 187.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8586…1316backed Yes | 16c | 183.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…8de2backed Yes | 13c | 182.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bde…9909backed Yes | 11c | 174.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef9…3f42backed Yes | 12c | 166.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a6…2eecbacked Yes | 7c | 156.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe97e…ec13backed Yes | 13c | 123.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Yes | 13c | 122.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 8c | 119.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Yes | 12c | 115.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2e…31b0backed Yes | 14c | 104.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…1ea4backed Yes | 17c | 96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae05…f5d1backed Yes | 14c | 82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…0426backed Yes | 14c | 71.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.