Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b1c0d7dbaf18bf7e34a040d9a1c065ab73d1afbdc25b1b2335274d5e1d357b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $395,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $395,036 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 3c | 47,370$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.7 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 8c | 12,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…0988backed Yes | 1c | 9,638$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.73 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 8,750$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 3c | 7,898$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.61 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…5ababacked Yes | 3c | 7,498$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 8c | 6,180$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.96 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes | 3c | 4,618$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 3c | 4,320$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.44 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes | 3c | 3,003$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.21 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…7112backed Yes | 4c | 2,952$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…d932backed Yes | 51c | 2,642$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.58 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 4c | 2,547$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 8c | 2,535$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.54 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 5c | 2,500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +599.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 8c | 2,468$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.86 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,357$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.78 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 26c | 2,117$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes | 5c | 1,841$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f8…f072backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…cc75backed Yes | 3c | 1,645$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…0414backed No | 80c | 1,566$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.56 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae6…15fabacked Yes | 4c | 1,563$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 1,423$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aee…d8debacked Yes | 4c | 1,336$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +314.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,304$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f0…50f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,199$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 2c | 1,185$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddc…07dabacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,079$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b07abacked Yes | 3c | 1,070$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,059$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,039$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…37f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,030$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca68…bd3abacked Yes | 3c | 939.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 8c | 708.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…2d05backed Yes | 2c | 682.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 3c | 675.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 5c | 655.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…8c4fbacked Yes | 3c | 625.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dda…6ec7backed Yes | 41c | 617.07$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes | 6c | 607.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…5fbbbacked Yes | 3c | 558.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…b720backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 2c | 438.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 98 | 5.1%5 W · 93 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…c7aebacked Yes | 6c | 380$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…b00ebacked No | 79c | 378.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…18f0backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65fb…9f17backed Yes | 9c | 284.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89dd…ced7backed Yes | 16c | 280$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 17c | 245$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa479…6a67backed Yes | 16c | 153.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…8fa8backed Yes | 16c | 129.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa29b…a0b8backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7f…2352backed Yes | 23c | 103.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…891fbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked Yes | 24c | 85.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a17…048ebacked No | 73c | 81.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x63d7…f440backed No | 74c | 39.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eef…65c2backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 2-8?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.