Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0903c08603239a276078a56fa9dd4bc0c57ee2f112e0f631c09c5cb18d892672
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,782 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ddc…07dabacked Yes | 0c | 70,942$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.39 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 0c | 8,587$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 0c | 7,467$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…b7f8backed Yes | 1c | 7,320$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f8…f072backed Yes | 0c | 3,719$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,959$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d9…ab69backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…7112backed Yes | 1c | 1,860$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,498$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224c…ee07backed Yes | 5c | 1,451$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 1c | 1,379$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,261$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 1c | 1,003$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 3c | 993.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 2c | 784.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…c312backed Yes | 3c | 531$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae6…15fabacked Yes | 4c | 445.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 2-8?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.