Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdeee963e78923db65ef86ade5ae7b7b86bd1ccaebedbe9d650243a3a1559690a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $215,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,387 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x615d…8a36backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed No | 3c | 15,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 54c | 13,826$7,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,305.89 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…0988backed Yes | 64c | 9,496$6,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,447.87 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…8af2backed No | 41c | 8,642$3,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,543.2 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 19c | 3,955$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,185.95 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 21c | 3,929$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,114.5 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd914…0d9abacked Yes | 47c | 2,820$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 36c | 2,727$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.62 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…49edbacked Yes | 78c | 2,548$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba22…dc45backed Yes | 58c | 1,807$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Yes | 18c | 1,700$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 75c | 1,477$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.7 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 29c | 1,250$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked No | 7c | 1,200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e74…d4e5backed Yes | 31c | 967.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +152.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ad…6403backed Yes | 58c | 853.76$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…0414backed No | 38c | 825.99$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.39 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 37c | 761.17$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.85 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 69c | 648.27$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 10c | 594.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 79c | 500$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 72c | 400$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed No | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb95…542abacked Yes | 27c | 370.83$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1519…573cbacked No | 48c | 337.13$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes | 16c | 318.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.75 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 28c | 301.24$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.52 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd42…878dbacked No | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…fccbbacked Yes | 22c | 227.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +137%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac5…154cbacked No | 45c | 222.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Yes | 25c | 220$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…b647backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…d7d6backed No | 35c | 210$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cc49backed Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 64c | 185.62$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 16c | 180.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.59 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed No | 40c | 169.72$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…05efbacked No | 18c | 168.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…93c7backed No | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dd…a272backed Yes | 24c | 154.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.95 | 117 | 26.5%31 W · 86 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 14c | 147.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.29 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed No | 41c | 139.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 39c | 138.46$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 73c | 137.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…7607backed Yes | 16c | 134.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.55 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d9…a756backed Yes | 49c | 130$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…d67cbacked No | 51c | 130$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…7933backed Yes | 69c | 130$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 66c | 129.02$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked No | 79c | 125.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f1…43cdbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…c3d7backed Yes | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4043…19cfbacked No | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…ed7dbacked No | 22c | 112.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked No | 44c | 100.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e4…0f1bbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf9…1cc3backed No | 42c | 98.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33fb…897cbacked Yes | 28c | 72.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…de81backed Yes | 21c | 71.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…1076backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…4d31backed Yes | 30c | 57.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 54c | 52.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 49cpaid | -53%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked No | 66c | 48.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1f…2483backed Yes | 61c | 47.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28eb…a5d2backed No | 31c | 45.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61df…8c83backed No | 45c | 43.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae05…f5d1backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…793bbacked No | 76c | 39.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880f…631abacked No | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb194…280cbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 2-8?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 2-8?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.