TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$658,709

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $658,709 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x615e…5295backed Yes0c104,519$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.522270.9%2 W · 225 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes0c22,000$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102320%0 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked No71c20,530$14,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,9548100%8 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes14c18,880$2,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,710.992326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x960d…c2a2backed Yes1c16,289$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf90…5263backed Yes0c14,442$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d16…e798backed Yes3c13,043$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.5880%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc17b…7ec2backed Yes9c10,675$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b64…707bbacked Yes2c10,146$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1991414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-50.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes49c10,000$4,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,922.3912025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4124…8af2backed No55c8,532$4,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,843.42152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes28c8,076$2,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,270.0237745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70f3…2822backed Yes1c7,756$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002025%5 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes22c7,335$1,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,595.2258126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes26c6,895$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.1287828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fac…0cc1backed Yes0c6,490$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes3c6,066$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.721422.1%3 W · 139 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes11c6,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.5323411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1414…18fcbacked Yes1c5,105$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff5…50eabacked Yes4c4,922$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.81921.1%4 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-29%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes10c4,383$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.51288.6%11 W · 117 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x268b…22d7backed Yes1c3,811$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bf2…b087backed Yes22c3,657$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed Yes7c3,390$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.662231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c3,310$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.916785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b89…fdf9backed Yes13c3,207$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430229.1%2 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes9c3,000$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.92825%7 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+270.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes21c2,892$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.6340643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes8c2,864$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.353998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d74…596bbacked Yes10c2,490$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240263.8%1 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-92.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6294…33f3backed No55c2,332$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.736657.6%38 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f05…43e7backed Yes2c1,985$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd78c…3469backed Yes6c1,956$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.92861.2%1 W · 85 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-87.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a7…5fd4backed Yes6c1,825$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes3c1,650$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.72581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c35…feebbacked Yes6c1,614$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.97270%0 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes18c1,604$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.544411.4%5 W · 39 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-39.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe516…14ffbacked Yes4c1,547$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5160%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x379f…cbaebacked Yes2c1,379$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.31475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+62.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3520…1fa0backed Yes51c1,343$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes4c1,289$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.052683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae5…33c1backed Yes3c1,229$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3210315.5%16 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid+28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes17c1,217$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.0914019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8176…5836backed Yes38c1,198$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes15c976.67$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.08147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6af…a0ebbacked Yes6c958.33$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9249…cc75backed Yes36c944.09$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.341118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a8a…7699backed No65c933$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.281457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d60…7fecbacked Yes1c929.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6af9…a022backed No54c900$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0688…7a12backed No65c840$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.64650%23 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No63c800$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29813770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No76c789.61$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.6121651.4%111 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ede…e0e8backed Yes12c767.65$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+65.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca68…bd3abacked Yes2c718.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.48137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c23…bfecbacked Yes42c711.67$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.950%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c27…494bbacked Yes2c702.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13283.6%1 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-81.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x59db…1d13backed No51c649.99$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3181662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca4f…ff9ebacked Yes8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-59.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6b4…c169backed Yes4c601.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-59.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes3c591.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.682010%2 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94e4…b647backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes22c484.77$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2828021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51e0…027bbacked Yes52c450.17$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No74c444.84$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.657767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes23c428.26$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.513624.3%33 W · 103 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xba10…b244backed Yes19c419.11$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87f4…9ed0backed No66c367.19$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.143531.4%11 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-51.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes7c331.31$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.311127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc0c…ae76backed Yes32c314.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xede1…1c68backed Yes16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Yes8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244341.9%18 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes8c299.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244136.6%15 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac25…9523backed Yes36c299.02$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes31c285.54$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2816537.6%62 W · 103 L-21.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-38.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2cd8…acf1backed No59c271.67$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9112…7797backed Yes8c266.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.14553.3%24 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf80d…0c0cbacked Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d8a…5bd3backed Yes40c247.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c1d…d05ebacked Yes20c232.69$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-77.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae46…7889backed Yes49c228.02$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x916e…2be2backed Yes19c207$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32a3…a818backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick27cpaid-84.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Yes49c192.35$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.253724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd55d…7484backed Yes30c190$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3fa…af3abacked Yes16c187.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…f384backed Yes35c171.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeace…5d17backed No74c170.58$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.821764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x790c…ee12backed Yes40c166.66$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-54.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6293…3c27backed Yes19c155$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.87812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-61.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c1e…4a65backed No52c153.92$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.88666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+129.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0258…13bfbacked No77c150$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.518162.4%113 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd14…1c17backed Yes37c148.19$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.695954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2640…32bdbacked Yes35c143.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2482…a721backed Yes29c142.33$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.32650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89eb…8da5backed No56c135.68$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcaed…37d5backed Yes11c130$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8440%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6c7…ff77backed Yes13c128.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.11216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid+877.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba0b…7132backed Yes37c128.1$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa244…8e63backed No50c124.47$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.99229.1%2 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick22cpaid-64.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.