TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7df2…01af

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
214
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 61 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT8411.9%10 W · 74 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick4cpaid+599.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 84 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.5
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 15-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.86
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.18
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Solana reach $100 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.06
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$218.75
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.14
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 May 18-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.06
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 11-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 May 4-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 4-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Solana dip to $70 April 27-May 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.01
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 27-May 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.5
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 27-May 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 April 20-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 20-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 6-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 30-April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Will Solana reach $110 March 30-April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 30-April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.94
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 30-April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.38
Showing 25 of 84 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT4610.9%5 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$322Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+303.8%+$978.04
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.5
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$175
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$182.18
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$154
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.5
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$34
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$325.33
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.27
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$383Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$382.5
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$330
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+762.1%+$883.99
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$24.34
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+455.6%+$1,639.99
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+455.6%+$820
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$31.5
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Will the US next strike Iran on March 4, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$13.03
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT1323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.5
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.49
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+81.1%+$144.43
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$401Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$401.13
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$905Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$905.47
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$378Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$378.22
Ukraine hits Moscow by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.82
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.02
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,575Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+89.3%+$1,405.57
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+100%+$15.48
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$33
All 13 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 26, 2026, EDT110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.11
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 11 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+39.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+1,438.5%+$373.99
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.5
Will APT (Rosé and Bruno Mars) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will DTMF (Bad Bunny) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$37.5
All 11 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.23
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$84.83
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,080Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,080
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$720Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$720
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$865Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+131.2%+$1,135
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,140Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+163.2%+$1,860
All 9 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.21
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$49.5
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$141
All 8 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.45per pick12cpaid+966.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$125
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.56
Will Dynamo Kyiv beat Ferencvaros?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$90
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.