TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,903,949
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,947,767

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,903,949 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 422 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9ef5…5d4fbacked Yes1c235,145$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,491.93714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-61.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes2c147,790$3,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,194.45100%0 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes2c123,375$2,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,743.529413.8%13 W · 81 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd93c…689cbacked Yes1c89,545$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.35633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6bc…8fd8backed Yes0c86,430$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21dd…ca3abacked Yes2c71,911$1,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,63520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes3c60,019$1,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,776.88247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes2c56,053$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.234429.5%13 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb4…88c4backed Yes1c46,442$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes2c46,079$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.082630.8%8 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes4c43,312$1,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,654.2712927.9%36 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a1…7c68backed Yes1c39,178$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.31175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-87.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c34,813$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.86140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6c87…fce0backed Yes2c34,719$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.96333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-53.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes2c34,639$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.8314121.3%30 W · 111 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b3c…c600backed Yes3c33,714$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes1c32,310$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.711040%44 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed Yes2c29,711$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.68336.1%2 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick9cpaid+28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce37…b17bbacked Yes4c28,495$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3975…0f53backed Yes2c28,199$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.41290%0 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ffa…b3c4backed Yes4c26,726$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.221915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+71.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes4c25,619$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.884420.5%9 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0c1…8a69backed Yes7c25,457$1,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c23…0266backed Yes2c25,174$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.27922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb27f…8908backed Yes0c25,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-57.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4076…f867backed Yes2c24,880$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf657…108ebacked Yes14c24,708$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,500812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes2c24,098$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick23cpaid-89%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b57…1b5abacked Yes3c22,748$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes1c20,475$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.197821.8%17 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e8b…d83abacked Yes1c20,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49a6…7049backed Yes1c19,805$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.0890%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x567d…f927backed Yes3c19,013$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes1c18,946$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.125922%13 W · 46 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-61.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa24a…9211backed Yes3c18,736$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.1520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-60.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaade…ae6cbacked Yes2c18,179$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.5450%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ed6…de2fbacked Yes2c18,069$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bad…c024backed Yes3c17,977$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.72100%0 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes3c17,725$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc2…0981backed Yes3c17,385$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked Yes4c17,351$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.191717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes3c17,228$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.433218.8%6 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1172…242ebacked Yes2c16,860$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6dcd…67f1backed Yes0c16,414$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes2c15,941$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x220d…f4e9backed Yes4c14,931$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x419c…4400backed Yes1c14,771$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes9c14,616$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.894524.4%11 W · 34 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-56.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xafcf…7cc4backed Yes4c13,055$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9717…ddf3backed Yes4c13,006$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3240…5d25backed Yes2c12,311$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.97616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-77.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xada4…48babacked Yes2c12,307$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.5260%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb954…0b6fbacked Yes3c11,819$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ab…1f24backed Yes2c11,722$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24360%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd84…d961backed Yes4c11,471$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd4…5666backed Yes2c11,347$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.4250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55e4…bf8abacked Yes3c11,274$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed Yes4c11,215$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.721414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-79.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes3c10,956$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.65722.8%13 W · 44 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9251…1fb8backed Yes2c10,486$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.5450%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80e9…f5c4backed Yes3c10,365$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes3c10,335$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.289115.4%14 W · 77 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-71.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10230%0 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f51…531ebacked Yes1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-69.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes2c10,000$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-54%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe115…cb44backed Yes3c9,849$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes2c9,734$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.13129%9 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b36…586dbacked Yes1c9,584$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa0a9…abdfbacked Yes3c9,575$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c9,100$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.11330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+227.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x082f…ce74backed Yes3c8,621$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc78c…0c5abacked Yes4c8,565$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7712…0c28backed Yes3c8,558$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.550%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c1b…645fbacked Yes2c8,425$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f5b…b993backed Yes3c8,388$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.621723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x758c…074abacked Yes1c8,379$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002213.6%3 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+60.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe613…540ebacked Yes2c8,331$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.7470%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes3c8,037$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.237241.7%30 W · 42 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaca3…cb95backed Yes3c8,000$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4355…9682backed Yes4c7,915$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7a2…2b21backed Yes2c7,717$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.53922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48b7…5ba0backed Yes4c7,595$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes1c7,440$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844810.4%5 W · 43 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c7…0f6dbacked Yes2c7,400$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.7740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe860…c3d2backed Yes3c7,263$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-46.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes3c7,215$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9316…c00cbacked Yes3c6,884$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a2b…b88abacked Yes3c6,673$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x506d…ddaabacked Yes4c6,664$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes2c6,632$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.341711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid+22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c6,498$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.065327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9aa…3382backed Yes0c6,300$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e6d…e408backed Yes2c6,285$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Yes3c6,185$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.97120%0 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x158e…93dcbacked Yes1c6,089$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4d6…745dbacked Yes3c6,040$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6a5…98d0backed Yes2c6,000$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d1…6aeebacked Yes2c6,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb27…aec4backed Yes2c5,900$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0da…2a34backed Yes2c5,861$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.