Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb050c89e1e5738c79e117d28da1f057ac2f193511aab87a01b517b466c7265dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,903,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,947,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,903,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 422 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ef5…5d4fbacked Yes | 1c | 235,145$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 2c | 147,790$3,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,194.45 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 2c | 123,375$2,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,743.52 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93c…689cbacked Yes | 1c | 89,545$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bc…8fd8backed Yes | 0c | 86,430$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…ca3abacked Yes | 2c | 71,911$1,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 3c | 60,019$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.8 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 2c | 56,053$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.23 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…88c4backed Yes | 1c | 46,442$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 2c | 46,079$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.08 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 4c | 43,312$1,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.27 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a1…7c68backed Yes | 1c | 39,178$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.31 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 34,813$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.86 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c87…fce0backed Yes | 2c | 34,719$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 34,639$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.83 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…c600backed Yes | 3c | 33,714$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 1c | 32,310$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.7 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 2c | 29,711$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.68 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce37…b17bbacked Yes | 4c | 28,495$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed Yes | 2c | 28,199$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.41 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffa…b3c4backed Yes | 4c | 26,726$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.22 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 4c | 25,619$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.88 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c1…8a69backed Yes | 7c | 25,457$1,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,682.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…0266backed Yes | 2c | 25,174$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…8908backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4076…f867backed Yes | 2c | 24,880$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…108ebacked Yes | 14c | 24,708$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 2c | 24,098$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -89%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b57…1b5abacked Yes | 3c | 22,748$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 1c | 20,475$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.19 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8b…d83abacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a6…7049backed Yes | 1c | 19,805$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.08 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567d…f927backed Yes | 3c | 19,013$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 1c | 18,946$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.12 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa24a…9211backed Yes | 3c | 18,736$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaade…ae6cbacked Yes | 2c | 18,179$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed6…de2fbacked Yes | 2c | 18,069$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…c024backed Yes | 3c | 17,977$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.72 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes | 3c | 17,725$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc2…0981backed Yes | 3c | 17,385$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 4c | 17,351$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.19 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 3c | 17,228$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.43 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1172…242ebacked Yes | 2c | 16,860$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcd…67f1backed Yes | 0c | 16,414$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 2c | 15,941$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x220d…f4e9backed Yes | 4c | 14,931$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x419c…4400backed Yes | 1c | 14,771$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 9c | 14,616$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.89 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…7cc4backed Yes | 4c | 13,055$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9717…ddf3backed Yes | 4c | 13,006$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed Yes | 2c | 12,311$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…48babacked Yes | 2c | 12,307$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…0b6fbacked Yes | 3c | 11,819$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…1f24backed Yes | 2c | 11,722$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…d961backed Yes | 4c | 11,471$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…5666backed Yes | 2c | 11,347$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…bf8abacked Yes | 3c | 11,274$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 4c | 11,215$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.72 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 3c | 10,956$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.6 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9251…1fb8backed Yes | 2c | 10,486$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…f5c4backed Yes | 3c | 10,365$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 3c | 10,335$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.28 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…531ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe115…cb44backed Yes | 3c | 9,849$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 2c | 9,734$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.1 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b36…586dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,584$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a9…abdfbacked Yes | 3c | 9,575$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 9,100$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +227.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x082f…ce74backed Yes | 3c | 8,621$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78c…0c5abacked Yes | 4c | 8,565$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…0c28backed Yes | 3c | 8,558$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1b…645fbacked Yes | 2c | 8,425$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…b993backed Yes | 3c | 8,388$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.62 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758c…074abacked Yes | 1c | 8,379$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked Yes | 2c | 8,331$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 3c | 8,037$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.23 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…cb95backed Yes | 3c | 8,000$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…9682backed Yes | 4c | 7,915$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a2…2b21backed Yes | 2c | 7,717$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.53 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b7…5ba0backed Yes | 4c | 7,595$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 7,440$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c7…0f6dbacked Yes | 2c | 7,400$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…c3d2backed Yes | 3c | 7,263$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 3c | 7,215$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9316…c00cbacked Yes | 3c | 6,884$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…b88abacked Yes | 3c | 6,673$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506d…ddaabacked Yes | 4c | 6,664$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 2c | 6,632$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.34 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 6,498$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.06 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9aa…3382backed Yes | 0c | 6,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6d…e408backed Yes | 2c | 6,285$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 3c | 6,185$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.97 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x158e…93dcbacked Yes | 1c | 6,089$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…745dbacked Yes | 3c | 6,040$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a5…98d0backed Yes | 2c | 6,000$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…6aeebacked Yes | 2c | 6,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…aec4backed Yes | 2c | 5,900$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…2a34backed Yes | 2c | 5,861$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.