TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7c23…0266

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
275
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
16

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 52 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT10630.2%32 W · 74 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 106 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
France vs. Spain: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$54.07
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Spread: England (-1.5)backed England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+68.8%+$68.78
Dani Olmo: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Spread: Spain (-2.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Spread: Spain (-1.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
France vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
France vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Colombia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$88
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Colombia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$62
Spread: United States (-1.5)backed United States · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$54.31
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$62
Spread: Spain (-1.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Mexico vs. England: England O/U 5.5 Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.57
Will England win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$159.89
Erling Haaland: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$53.02
Showing 25 of 106 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT2227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+106.1%+$15.01
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$86.36
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$357Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$356.53
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,598Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$1,597.6
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$682Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$682.5
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$446Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$445.8
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$202.49
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$316.85
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$66.94
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.44
Bank of England rate cut in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+75.4%+$29.97
Will four or more people dissent the December Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$222.45
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+81%+$67.14
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$7,368Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$7,368.23
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$155
Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+194.1%+$132
Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.76
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.49
Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$111.77
Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$151.5
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$314Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+65.5%+$205.8
Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+163.3%+$124.04
All 22 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$298Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+36.5%+$108.71
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$210
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.48
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.56
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.6
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.5
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$294Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+61.1%+$179.74
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$237.23
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+42.9%+$90
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$183.6
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+44.9%+$93
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-11-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$300
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+61.9%+$61.94
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.27
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$65
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$268Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+294.4%+$788.09
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$33.31
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$130
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$76
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$85
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$65
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$155
Israel strikes Iran by January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$102
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$713Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+33.3%+$237.5
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$458Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$457.95
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
US forces in Venezuela by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$139.5
Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+69.5%+$163.97
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$216
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$456Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+67.2%+$306.79
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,205Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$1,205
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$551Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$550.59
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$240.48
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.25
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.78
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$200
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$555Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+257.7%+$1,430.1
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$371Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$370.75
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.35
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.95
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.84
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$141.46
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$76
All 11 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-71.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$565Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$565
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+212.5%+$340
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$795Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$795.25
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$2,217Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$2,217.17
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$167
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$489Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$489
Maduro out by November 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$50
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$85
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$290.85
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$28.5
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$388.33
All 11 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-69.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$304Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$304
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$390
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+235.3%+$235.31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.61
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$734Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$734.43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.39
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.68
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.91
All 11 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST110%0 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$103.6
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.2
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$585Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$584.99
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$65
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$650Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$649.97
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$158.67
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$75
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$70
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.24
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$102
All 11 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.65
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+468%+$1,263.64
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$171.88
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$318Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$317.53
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$615Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$615.16
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+143.9%+$88.5
Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$341Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$341.09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$386Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$386.27
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$55
All 9 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Music — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$247.5
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.4
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.9
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$53
Will Belgium come in last place at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.97
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST80%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Boxing — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-50.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST60%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$62.7
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 PGA Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$309.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.