TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,989,384
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,071,107

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,989,384 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 436 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9eba…3865backed Yes3c348,220$9,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,729.8760%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x826b…2669backed Yes4c206,469$7,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,770.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b16…a4fcbacked Yes1c92,263$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.63425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-67.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe946…4cc4backed Yes3c75,205$2,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,007.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes1c65,902$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.6115446.8%72 W · 82 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3762…b66dbacked Yes2c65,647$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,590.3970%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab82…abe5backed Yes2c62,929$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b7…9cc5backed Yes3c59,984$1,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,784.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8361…8e6dbacked Yes1c56,343$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.82580%0 W · 58 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd375…5438backed Yes3c46,027$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes3c43,870$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,383.812133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e45…5b3fbacked Yes3c43,494$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.49120%0 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6c1…2f93backed Yes0c43,248$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x416e…a47fbacked Yes3c42,996$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.29425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes3c39,981$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.647011.4%8 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-61.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9a7…5793backed Yes1c39,247$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.0790%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ac5…cf2ebacked Yes2c38,700$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.761520%3 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes2c36,115$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.6232023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ff…d4b1backed Yes0c35,212$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb68b…6893backed Yes0c34,605$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6980%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ba…96abbacked Yes1c33,000$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4051816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-61.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7605…db3bbacked Yes2c29,706$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b2…2f08backed Yes1c29,604$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.82227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e42…0098backed Yes3c29,224$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.5340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes2c29,200$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.32010%2 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-51.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa1a…bf63backed Yes3c28,890$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.5590%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes1c28,820$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.782420.8%5 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-49.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25d7…c2bfbacked Yes1c28,377$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.09160%0 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…9ea3backed Yes1c28,072$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.37616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes2c27,635$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.79948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5204…195ebacked Yes2c27,553$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes2c27,122$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.461926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes0c26,850$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6956.3%6 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick10cpaid+21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa15a…2677backed Yes4c26,540$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-63.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes2c25,522$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.733315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4266…0e08backed Yes3c23,901$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.991526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-41.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x191f…a9c0backed Yes1c23,052$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.6760%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes1c22,800$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3203315.2%5 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-65.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x838d…3cbdbacked Yes3c22,754$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.0840%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef08…1d55backed Yes2c22,216$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.2380%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes1c21,694$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.67616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes2c21,190$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.521884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…eb16backed Yes2c20,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc002…6f57backed Yes1c20,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes1c19,968$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.553122.6%7 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes3c19,963$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.72170%0 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d7…008dbacked Yes3c19,576$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.381612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-73.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad2e…d9bdbacked Yes4c19,521$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Yes3c19,495$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6986…1402backed Yes1c19,400$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.41717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-67.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x625f…e2c0backed Yes2c19,399$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.75915.3%9 W · 50 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cf3…b1babacked Yes4c19,263$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.241020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8874…0a5cbacked Yes2c19,125$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9c3…d922backed Yes2c18,161$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.8940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes2c17,234$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.62100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ad…bd19backed Yes1c16,531$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.22147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Yes3c16,094$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.151040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-32.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c15,809$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81230%0 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ca7…8195backed Yes1c15,541$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.323033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-27%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c22…db86backed Yes2c15,107$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes3c14,943$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.2790%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x274a…2246backed Yes2c14,818$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.041020%2 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-63.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac5c…7b5bbacked Yes3c13,958$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.3880%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes1c13,362$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8821011.9%25 W · 185 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7e…ed89backed Yes1c13,151$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes4c12,771$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.121540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe668…88d5backed Yes0c12,634$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5543…8d64backed Yes2c12,562$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.072722.2%6 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+65.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd157…0b20backed Yes2c12,508$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.73728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick18cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed2e…41f7backed Yes2c12,486$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.722010%2 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-46.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6886…4baabacked Yes3c12,192$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes3c12,069$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.79310%0 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c12,030$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.072324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf75f…0988backed Yes1c11,904$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.92326.3%2 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-81.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5e…39d5backed Yes3c11,568$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc605…ed4fbacked Yes1c11,463$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b62…9efdbacked Yes1c11,401$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe42b…6bb6backed Yes2c10,643$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.9160%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb698…976abacked Yes1c10,216$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0850%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b2…5743backed Yes1c10,186$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eac…3600backed Yes1c10,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102020%4 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes2c10,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22011921%25 W · 94 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0bd…e598backed Yes2c9,757$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.25812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-80.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes3c9,597$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.81520%3 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-36.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x80c7…2c9fbacked Yes2c9,376$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.7120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fef…3c7ebacked Yes1c9,375$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1970%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e44…9863backed Yes3c9,283$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.2440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x812f…27f0backed Yes1c9,115$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe82…b6f4backed Yes0c9,085$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9715…4577backed Yes2c9,017$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.04185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-79.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84c6…0c95backed Yes2c8,704$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.372227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0f…840ebacked Yes3c8,576$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.6490%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86f9…f0a6backed Yes4c8,425$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.41540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes2c8,387$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.981212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f63…762fbacked Yes3c8,206$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbc…f38bbacked Yes1c8,002$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0190%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22eb…d2fdbacked Yes2c7,983$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x253b…0ae7backed Yes3c7,928$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.13316.5%2 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+243.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc4…7c1dbacked Yes2c7,644$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.222222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f2…ad07backed Yes1c7,391$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.