Commodities · resolved market
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47afe89d517f5183208282c97fca6ec0e367a7bd2df10f62c8c8c2ba5e1456ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $439,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $394,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $439,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88b2…f7a2backed Yes | 1c | 28,038$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a6…7c90backed Yes | 2c | 22,104$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 1c | 19,324$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.27 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +243.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 1c | 17,311$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.33 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf167…d550backed Yes | 1c | 15,200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…333bbacked Yes | 1c | 12,958$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 12cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,753$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Yes | 1c | 10,951$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.03 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 9,954$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 1c | 9,546$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff3…a023backed Yes | 1c | 8,587$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 7,646$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…fb34backed Yes | 1c | 6,836$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 1c | 6,765$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 1c | 5,595$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270f…5e39backed Yes | 1c | 4,487$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 1c | 3,390$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b06…943cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,344$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,945$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a83…a9a0backed Yes | 1c | 2,588$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,299$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…96cabacked Yes | 1c | 2,268$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,026$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 1c | 1,790$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…e910backed Yes | 1c | 1,674$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a65…34a7backed Yes | 2c | 1,660$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,436$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2534…f596backed Yes | 1c | 1,359$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52c7…1c61backed Yes | 1c | 1,271$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?this page
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.