Commodities · resolved market
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x645e891624e810b1d95dc326cbf247f0ad7fb47759fc32139f7a572e0ae2188e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 4c | 14,315$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.95 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07dc…4ff3backed No | 0c | 13,801$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 23c | 5,191$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.03 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed No | 3c | 4,788$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.41 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e87…9a3fbacked No | 9c | 3,296$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.62 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed No | 9c | 3,163$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.05 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 7c | 2,955$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.07 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 80c | 1,656$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.74 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 1,300$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2c…7aadbacked No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed No | 6c | 953.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19da…4977backed No | 2c | 891.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…9f67backed No | 7c | 840.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…2919backed No | 10c | 571.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 20c | 565.87$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.57 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8c…90f8backed No | 17c | 533.87$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc31…7e2bbacked No | 10c | 497.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52c7…1c61backed No | 25c | 476.24$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.32 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…51c8backed No | 9c | 426.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 11c | 417$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d29…bd84backed No | 10c | 390.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…9d74backed Yes | 78c | 313.48$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.66 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 7c | 209.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…62b2backed No | 13c | 189$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19cb…a867backed No | 13c | 174.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked No | 8c | 164.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf5…e9dcbacked No | 14c | 144.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…a1aebacked No | 20c | 129.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b79…4acbbacked No | 17c | 110.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ced…443abacked No | 13c | 107.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x613e…2246backed Yes | 79c | 46.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6697…2716backed No | 24c | 43.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?this page
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.