Commodities · resolved market
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1ba930ae781db80b4ecce65723bf21768cb99a7112e3eb01f0de9af849f46d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 21,920$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac2…3606backed No | 4c | 11,225$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +124.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4430…3d6dbacked No | 0c | 10,012$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed No | 5c | 2,699$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.8 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked No | 11c | 1,925$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…c78fbacked No | 9c | 1,816$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b4…84adbacked No | 6c | 1,534$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 6c | 1,419$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 1,117$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed No | 5c | 1,006$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x157c…7c73backed No | 4c | 995.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c5…6f9cbacked No | 10c | 928$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +113%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…6984backed No | 3c | 833.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked No | 9c | 692.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…3b91backed No | 5c | 690$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 3c | 685.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x595a…babfbacked No | 6c | 661.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…8150backed No | 9c | 650.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 7c | 592.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…cc36backed No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed No | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9b…e9f6backed No | 5c | 369.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53aa…cf0bbacked No | 5c | 362.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed No | 5c | 266.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a5…0e36backed No | 8c | 259.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880a…308ebacked No | 9c | 256.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b9…c9c8backed No | 11c | 254.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…65c9backed No | 8c | 231.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 11c | 210$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…ac51backed No | 10c | 185.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237a…aad9backed No | 12c | 116.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked No | 11c | 113.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed No | 13c | 105.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?this page
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.