Commodities · resolved market
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc52016736fbcccfeeb78650b92f89304649d883d9f86b8e58f68752f16f229a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0b6…20febacked Yes | 0c | 44,651$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 0c | 5,160$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfb…f1ffbacked Yes | 8c | 3,216$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,414$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.49 | 109 | 30.3%33 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb275…28b1backed Yes | 5c | 2,200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…9754backed Yes | 8c | 1,767$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe8…42ccbacked Yes | 8c | 1,708$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.09 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 8c | 1,100$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 10c | 1,016$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 11c | 700$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a83…7d16backed Yes | 2c | 506.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 6c | 430.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c5…913cbacked Yes | 5c | 430$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…3117backed No | 75c | 356$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 9c | 301.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c89…6d01backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…82abbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 51c | 238.57$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.9 | 119 | 21%25 W · 94 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bf…9752backed Yes | 49c | 220$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…c3f2backed Yes | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed No | 75c | 194.24$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e3…3321backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 27c | 130$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -8.7wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…6d5abacked No | 78c | 128.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…fca5backed Yes | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880a…308ebacked Yes | 27c | 118.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 74c | 116.77$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…957fbacked No | 79c | 89.44$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 73c | 76.61$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked No | 74c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x586f…b928backed Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…85cebacked Yes | 23c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…fd7fbacked No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 116 | 28.4%33 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 58c | 22.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?this page
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.