TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2c55…dbb9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
160
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Commodities, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 58 out of 100; worst China Taiwan at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT4748.9%23 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+46.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$367
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$489Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$489.17
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$885Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$884.85
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$710Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$710.01
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$2,640
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+25.3%+$100.87
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$4,224Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+63.3%+$2,675.49
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$553Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$552.79
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+342.9%+$598.45
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$6,810Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+74.8%+$5,091.36
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$740Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$260
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$4,772Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+25.7%+$1,227.5
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.55
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$401Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$401.28
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$885Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+215.8%+$1,910.68
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,359Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+117.1%+$1,591.57
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$2,108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,107.72
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,706Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+369%+$6,294.38
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$82,014Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$82,013.59
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$5,508Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,507.9
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,625Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,625.17
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$9,783Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+82.7%+$8,091.87
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$6,276Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+27.5%+$1,723.76
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT3053.3%16 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Commodities — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,650Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$2,350
Will fewer than 220 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$570Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$430
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,550Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$2,449.99
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$3,135Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+27.6%+$864.93
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$4,670Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+71.3%+$3,330
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$310
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$5,535Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+35.5%+$1,965
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$294Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$293.51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+25%+$60
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15,539Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+62.2%+$9,666.7
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$739Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$739.36
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$314.91
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$4,282Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,282.06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,971Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,971.36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$4,131Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,131.25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$4,772Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+121.6%+$5,803.31
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,573Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,572.61
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$790Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$210
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$725Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+33.6%+$244.07
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2552%13 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,184Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+37.4%+$816.33
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.22
Will Claude Code Commits be between 650.0k and 700.0k on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.78
Will Claude Code Commits be between 700.0k and 750.0k on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.78
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,309Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+32.8%+$757.7
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$559Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+95%+$531.07
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,885Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+48.9%+$1,410.27
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$3,294Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+82.1%+$2,705.73
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$343Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$342.95
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,316Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+26.3%+$346.24
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,929Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+111.8%+$2,156.53
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,189Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+67.2%+$798.53
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$413Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$413.12
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$350.12
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$760Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+31.6%+$240
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$312.18
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$834Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+139.8%+$1,166
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+30.7%+$94
Will Claude win the okbet trading competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$29.91
Will Grok win the okbet trading competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$22.4
Grok 4.20 released by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$47.41
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$753Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+32.8%+$247.01
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+42.9%+$34.29
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$40
All 25 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST2040%8 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+54.8%+$116.8
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+238.9%+$367.88
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,807Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$1,807.24
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+156.4%+$610
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$519Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+155.4%+$806.36
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$329Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+82.6%+$271.49
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+163.2%+$186
Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.43
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$440
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$36
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$11
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,194Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$1,193.96
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,306Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,306.07
Maduro out by November 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$83
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+62.6%+$139.05
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$44.91
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$234.1
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$13.12
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+33.3%+$25
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$62.99
All 20 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+25%+$54.84
Another confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.45
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$37.99
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.88
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on April 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.29
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$472Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+27%+$127.74
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+375.1%+$157.89
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$254Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+30%+$76.24
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$157.64
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-80.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-73.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 12, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+100%+$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lyft (LYFT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$55.97
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.