AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x400b0455f9dab6116139d3f849a4e117894314ddbaefa17fbdf586b4b7177ccb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $280,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $264,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $280,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0540…8913backed No | 21c | 28,382$5,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,838.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d5…ec29backed No | 19c | 11,358$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e2…5fc9backed Yes | 74c | 7,579$5,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc381…a661backed No | 27c | 6,862$1,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,845.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed No | 18c | 6,517$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…924abacked No | 37c | 6,124$2,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,254.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bb…fc39backed No | 19c | 4,800$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 4,379$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…7e7abacked No | 23c | 4,258$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…251fbacked No | 28c | 4,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed No | 16c | 3,325$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.18 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 8c | 3,260$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.07 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 75c | 3,067$2,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.7 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 15c | 3,043$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.6 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x741e…9b87backed No | 25c | 1,947$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed No | 17c | 1,920$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff17…926dbacked No | 27c | 1,852$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 19c | 1,703$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.89 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x043f…d9e1backed No | 18c | 1,612$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c06…a52fbacked No | 17c | 1,503$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…7946backed No | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…9bddbacked No | 5c | 1,493$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…273ebacked No | 17c | 1,384$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 12c | 1,351$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.05 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1dc…047ebacked No | 20c | 1,047$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc156…9a16backed No | 21c | 1,022$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5b…5f59backed No | 12c | 1,013$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93f…445dbacked No | 9c | 1,009$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed Yes | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…2e9bbacked Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x583e…0289backed Yes | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85d…fabcbacked No | 18c | 925.73$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…72a5backed No | 17c | 899.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed Yes | 58c | 858.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.93 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c4…7ebfbacked No | 19c | 847.37$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 78c | 828.83$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.97 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 823.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26bb…8337backed No | 24c | 823.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 17c | 800$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed Yes | 80c | 800$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 80c | 779.67$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.28 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…97e3backed No | 12c | 765.01$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 16c | 755.55$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.03 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 5c | 702.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 7c | 649.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 12c | 640.33$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…f36ebacked No | 20c | 623.7$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 80c | 600.71$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.14 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…0a2fbacked No | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…b9edbacked Yes | 79c | 599.99$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60a…3122backed No | 19c | 599.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked No | 21c | 563.18$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd6…10d4backed No | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…bc83backed No | 24c | 538.97$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…2f1ebacked No | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…e221backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…df31backed No | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ce…aee2backed No | 20c | 494.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4e…8729backed No | 19c | 473.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…766ebacked No | 22c | 448.36$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…2722backed Yes | 80c | 440.5$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65db…4ba3backed No | 6c | 430.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 33c | 421.74$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.57 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 17c | 419.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked No | 19c | 417.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 77c | 409.12$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.02 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…8255backed No | 25c | 407.73$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0d…bd03backed No | 8c | 406.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af1…6b27backed No | 18c | 400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…c4debacked No | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb97…ce85backed No | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed No | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 76c | 400$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…fb45backed No | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe739…0c48backed No | 18c | 399.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked Yes | 77c | 378.41$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4499…7b0fbacked No | 5c | 375.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked No | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefd…272fbacked No | 19c | 368.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd714…2895backed No | 9c | 364.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…9a5ebacked No | 17c | 359.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes | 42c | 327.33$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.97 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18c0…0986backed No | 24c | 325$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd953…d9bebacked No | 6c | 314.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d5…435fbacked No | 18c | 313.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ba…8761backed No | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…9190backed Yes | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002c…8357backed No | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…9e46backed No | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc150…0957backed No | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977d…cc22backed No | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 8c | 287.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…c6b7backed No | 15c | 284.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed No | 11c | 277.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 78c | 270$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…688dbacked No | 9c | 265$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf108…10e9backed Yes | 79c | 260$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c8…bdddbacked No | 9c | 251$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff1…7234backed No | 8c | 240$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by November 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.